India–UK Trade Pact to Double Bilateral Commerce by 2030, Says Rubix Data Sciences

Labour-intensive industries, agriculture, and processed foods stand to gain the most as tariff barriers fall under the upcoming Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).

By Vivek Bhavsar

Editor-in-Chief, TheNews21

Mumbai: As UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins his India visit ahead of crucial trade talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a new analysis by Rubix Data Sciences projects that the proposed Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between India and the United Kingdom could double bilateral trade to USD 112 billion by 2030.

The study argues that the agreement, once implemented, will mark a decisive shift in India’s export competitiveness and manufacturing base — a policy outcome that ties directly into the Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat frameworks.

The Rubix report details a sweeping liberalisation plan on both sides. India will reduce tariffs on 90 per cent of UK product lines, bringing average customs duties down from about 15 per cent to 3 per cent.

In return, the UK will eliminate tariffs on 99 per cent of Indian exports, effectively giving Indian producers access to one of the most sophisticated and high-value consumer markets in the world.

The asymmetry built into the tariff structure is deliberate. India’s larger labour-intensive base and the UK’s advanced manufacturing complement each other rather than compete. For policymakers, the CETA is expected to serve as a model agreement for India’s future trade diplomacy — a pivot away from protectionism toward calibrated openness.

According to Rubix, bilateral trade between the two countries stood at USD 56 billion in FY 2025 — USD 23 billion in merchandise and USD 33 billion in services.

This figure represents a 7 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since FY 2018, outpacing India’s overall trade growth during the same period.

India continues to maintain a trade surplus with the UK, though imports from Britain — primarily machinery, precision instruments, and beverages — have grown at a faster 9 per cent CAGR. The UK is currently India’s fourth-largest export destination, accounting for 3.3 per cent of total exports, but ranks only 21st as an import source. CETA’s tariff cuts could begin to balance this mismatch while still preserving India’s surplus position.

Rubix’s economists emphasise that the agreement, when fully operational, could add USD 30 billion in new trade flows by 2030 — driven mainly by textiles, food processing, engineering goods, and technology services.

The largest beneficiaries will be India’s labour-intensive sectors.

Rubix lists textiles, apparel, gems & jewellery, leather products, marine exports, and light engineering goods among the top gainers.

These industries account for nearly one-fourth of India’s merchandise exports and provide direct employment to more than 60 million people.

With duties eliminated in the UK market, Indian exporters could regain the price advantage lost to Bangladesh and Vietnam in recent years.

In particular, the readymade-garment sector — long constrained by 10–12 per cent duties — is expected to see an immediate uptick in orders from British retail chains.

Rubix notes that even a modest 5 per cent rise in exports from these sectors could generate more than 1 million additional jobs over the next five years.

This employment impact, spread across small and medium enterprises in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan, could give fresh impetus to rural industrialisation and women’s participation in the workforce.

Agriculture and processed foods represent an under-explored dimension of India–UK trade.

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At present, the UK accounts for barely 2 per cent of India’s agri and food exports, but Rubix forecasts that share to triple by 2030 under CETA.

The agreement grants preferential access to over 925 agricultural and processed product lines, covering items such as tea, spices, basmati rice, mangoes, grapes, and marine products.

With average UK tariffs on these goods set to fall to zero, Indian exporters can tap a premium retail market with rising demand for organic and ethnic foods.

“CETA could prove transformational for our farm export landscape,” says the Rubix report, highlighting that agriculture accounts for 15 per cent of all Indian product lines eligible under the agreement.

The firm projects a significant uptick in farmgate prices and a direct boost to incomes in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal — states with strong horticulture and marine clusters.

Beyond merchandise trade, Rubix argues that CETA will strengthen India’s integration into global supply chains.

Lower tariffs on industrial inputs from the UK — especially aerospace components, electrical equipment, and industrial design software — will reduce input costs for Indian manufacturers and enhance their export competitiveness.

“The agreement acts as a powerful enabler of the Make in India initiative, helping domestic manufacturers deepen their global footprint,” the Rubix report observes.

It adds that Indian companies could see a surge in joint ventures with British firms in sectors such as automobile engineering, green energy, pharmaceuticals, and fintech.

Analysts note that for the UK, CETA is as strategic as it is commercial. Post-Brexit, London has sought to position itself as India’s gateway to European finance and technology, while New Delhi sees Britain as an entry point into high-end innovation and R&D ecosystems.

While tariffs draw most attention, the agreement’s true potential lies in its services chapter.

Both countries are services powerhouses — India in IT and digital outsourcing, the UK in financial and professional services.

CETA is expected to simplify mutual recognition of professional qualifications and ease visa restrictions for skilled workers — a long-standing Indian demand.

According to Rubix, the liberalisation of services could unlock USD 15–20 billion in new annual revenues for Indian IT and fintech companies operating in the UK, and create reciprocal openings for British financial institutions in Mumbai and GIFT City.

CETA’s agri provisions also align with India’s climate-resilient agriculture agenda. Duty-free access to UK supermarket chains could incentivise farmers to shift toward higher-value crops, improve grading and packaging standards, and adopt sustainable production methods.

Rubix forecasts that exports of processed foods, organic produce, and ready-to-eat items will grow threefold by 2030, provided logistics and cold-chain infrastructure keep pace.

For India’s agri-export agencies like APEDA and MPEDA, the agreement offers a rare chance to consolidate market share in a wealthy economy with stable demand and regulatory certainty.

Despite the optimism, Rubix urges caution on implementation.

Indian MSMEs could face competitive pressure from imported British goods in segments like processed food, craft beverages, and engineering equipment.

Non-tariff barriers — especially stringent UK quality and sustainability standards — may delay full realisation of benefits.

Trade experts also warn that India must avoid the “premature liberalisation trap.” If tariff cuts are not phased with domestic capacity building, some sectors could lose market share before they gain scale.

Nonetheless, most analysts see CETA as a net positive — especially for employment, rural incomes, and export diversification.

Starmer’s visit comes at a time when India is emerging as the fastest-growing major economy and Britain is seeking to redefine its post-Brexit trade architecture.

The agreement has been in negotiation for nearly three years, but officials suggest it is now in its final leg — with political sign-off expected during this visit.

For New Delhi, CETA fits its strategy of building bilateral pacts with trusted partners instead of large multilateral frameworks.

For London, it represents a chance to cement economic ties with the world’s fifth-largest economy — one that also hosts a vibrant Indian diaspora and serves as a technology and education partner.

If signed, CETA would be India’s most comprehensive trade agreement since the 2011 India-Japan pact, covering tariffs, investment, services, and intellectual property.
Implementation will require meticulous alignment of customs codes, quality standards, and digital trade protocols.

Rubix expects the agreement to roll out in phases over five years, with priority sectors — textiles, gems and jewellery, agri exports, and IT services — getting immediate benefits.

The Rubix report concludes on an upbeat note:

“The India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement has the potential to reshape trade flows between the two nations and create sustainable value across industries. Its success will depend on execution and policy consistency on both sides.”

As Prime Ministers Modi and Starmer meet in Mumbai for the Fintech Forum tomorrow, CETA’s framework is set to anchor the next phase of India–UK economic relations — linking manufacturing with innovation and commerce with climate-smart growth.

(Editor’s Note: Data and projections cited in this article are sourced from Rubix Data Sciences Pvt. Ltd., based on India’s Department of Commerce and APEDA statistics. Visuals reproduced with permission for editorial use.)