Last five big states and probably US Supreme Court to decide fate of 2020 Presidential polls

Counting halted in Pennsylvania over dispute in Mail-in-Ballot votes. As the Presidential race heads for a nail-biting finish, the issue is likely to reach the Courts if there is no clear winner. There are reports of voter intimidation reported from San Francisco and parts of Texas.

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: It does appear that the last remaining five big states with significant votes yet to be counted and states with significant Electoral College votes will decide as to who wins the 2020 US Presidential elections. Already counting of votes in Pennsylvania has been halted amidst accusations of fraud in counting Mail-in-Ballot votes. There are reports of voter intimidation being reported from San Francisco and parts of Texas. It does appear that the outcome of the elections might well be decided by the High Courts in the states and the US Supreme Court.

Speaking to thenews21 Dev Karlekar from New Jersey argued that the votes and Electoral College votes in the remaining five big states of Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (10) will decide the fate of the 2020 elections. He added that even if Republican and incumbent US President Donald Trump manages to win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina it will be enough for Trump to reach the magic majority figure of 270 Electoral College votes.

He said that the Republicans have alleged Mail-in-Ballot fraud in Pennsylvania where Trump’s 6% lead over his Democratic challenger Joe Biden came down to 3% after a huge bunch of Postal Ballots turned up. Karlekar further disclosed that many voters received totally anonymous postal ballots raising fears of rigged Mail-in-Ballot votes. The loser is bound to first approach the state High Court and if they are not satisfied with the judgment then they could move the US Supreme Court.

Also Read: Trump’s fate rests on Florida & Texas Electoral College votes, but authorities and businesses are bracing for riots

Speaking to thenews21 Milind Pohnerkar from San Francisco disclosed that in Texas people had blocked the roads leading to the polling stations with trucks. People were scared to get down from their vehicles while going to the nearest mailbox to drop their postal ballot envelopes. In San Francisco, anti-social elements were seen hanging out near mail boxes with a view to intimidate the voters from getting anywhere near to drop their postal vote envelopes. In Texas, people stoned cars, pelted eggs, tomatoes at people who tried to go to vote.

The eight states where counting and results are expected include – Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Alaska (3), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (10) and Maine (3).

According to pollsters Biden has 227 to 238 Electoral College votes in his favor, while Trump has 213 Electoral College votes in his favor. The majority mark in the 538 electoral college votes is 270 votes.

Pollsters are predicting leads for Trump in – Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alaska. These four states account for 54 Electoral College votes for Trump. According to Karlekar, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania.  A win in Georgia and North Carolina will be an added advantage.

For Biden pollsters are predicting leads for him in Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (10) and Maine (3). These four states account for 29 votes for Biden

According to poll predictions by Associated Press (AP), if Trump manages to win 54 votes and Biden 29 votes, then both get 267 votes, which will be tie. In such a situation their combined tally would be 534 electoral college votes, out of the total 538 votes, which indicates that 4 electoral college votes are either unallocated or invalid.

According to Milind Pohnerkar results in other states like Wisconsin, Maine, Nevada and Alaska should be declared. However, the fresh outbreak of Covid-19 has cast a shadow on the elections. If there is no clear winner, then the authorities will have to do a detailed counting of all the votes where Trump alleges fraud votes being counted.

In terms of Popular Vote, there is hardly 0.5% to 2% difference in popular vote share between Trump and Biden. These states include – Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. Trump has a clear lead margin in percentage terms in Alaska and Pennsylvania. While, Biden has a clear lead margin in percentage terms in Maine.

According to The Epoch Times, Trump should win in Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. These states account for 70 Electoral College votes, pushing Trump’s tally to 283 electoral college votes. Biden is likely to win in Nevada, Wisconsin and Maine, accounting for 29 electoral college votes, pushing his tally to 247 electoral college votes.

Again in terms of Popular Votes there is hardly 2% difference between Trump and Biden. In the Popular Votes, Biden has polled 6,95,04,648 crore popular votes which is 50%. While, Trump has polled 6,71,23,731 crore votes which is 48%.

In terms of winning seats in the Senate, the Democrats have won 46 seats. While the Republicans have won 47 seats, with the majority mark being 51 seats. The Democrats are all set to retain control of the House of Representatives. The Democrats have won 184 seats, while the Republicans have won 178 seats. The majority mark in the Congress is 218 seats.

The polling authorities have not yet called results in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine and Alaska. According to some pollsters the problem has been further complicated due to record high turnout in voters in the last 120 years. The last highest voting percentage of 73.2% was recorded in 1900. In this 2020 election, the voting percentage recorded has been 66.9%. This and the controversy over the Mail-in-Ballot votes is causing the delay in declaration of full and final results. It could get further delayed if the matter reaches the courts of law.