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Trump’s fate rests on Florida & Texas Electoral College votes, but authorities and businesses are bracing for riots

Prashant Hamine
By Prashant Hamine

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: The fate of US President Donald J Trump’s ability to retain his presidency now depends on key states of Florida and Texas. Much of the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential election depends upon which way the two states vote, especially which way the Electoral College votes go. Irrespective of whether who wins the Presidential race to the White House, authorities and businesses across the United States are already bracing for post-poll rioting as they fear supporters from either side might go berserk if the results are not to their liking.

With 9 million voters having already cast their ballot in the early voting and with the stakes being so high, a backlash from either side is the worst nightmare that the Americans can hope for. If the two key state’s turn Blue (Democrat) instead of Red (Republican), which will be known late by Tuesday evening in the US, Trump might as well have to concede defeat.

Already Trump critics are blaming him for the poor handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, the job losses, economy, foreign policy, supreme court appointments, abortion and other issues.

With pollsters predicting a 52% swing in popular votes for Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden and a 43% swing in favor of incumbent Republican US President Donald J Trump, it is all boiling down to which way Florida and Texas are going to vote. At least 9 states and two territories termed as Toss-up states (could vote either way) account for 161 Electoral College votes.

At present pollsters are predicting Biden to mop up 203 Electoral College votes from solidly Democrat states and in addition to 49 votes from states likely leaning towards the Democrats. The total Electoral College votes tally at present for Biden is 252 votes. Biden still needs 18 more electoral college votes to clinch the Presidency in his favour, with the majority mark being 270 votes in an electoral college of 538 votes.

Also Read: Why a Biden-Harris Presidency may not be good news for India

As against this the task for incumbent US President Donald J Trump appears to be an uphill one. At present pollsters are predicting that Trump has only 77 electoral college votes from solidly Republican states and a further 48 votes from Republican leaning states. Trump needs a further 145 Electoral College votes to retain his presidency.

Out of the 50 states and US territories, the states that are being labeled as Toss-up states in terms of Electoral College votes include – Arizona 11 votes, Florida 29, Georgia 16, Iowa 6, Nevada 6, New Jersey 14, North Carolina 15, Ohio 18, Pennsylvania 20 and Texas 38 votes, and a vote each from the 2 US overseas territories in the Caribbean, North and South Pacific. They alone account for 161 Electoral College votes.

There are 20 states in the US which have more than 10 electoral college votes, which include – Arizona 11 votes, California 55, Florida 29, Georgia 16, Illinois 20, Indiana 11, Maryland 10, Massachusetts 11, Michigan 16, Missouri 10, New Jersey 14, New York 29, North Carolina 15, Ohio 18, Pennsylvania 20, Tennessee 11, Texas 38, Virginia 13, Washington 12 and Wisconsin 10. These 20 US states account for 369 Electoral College votes.

There are some pollsters who are predicting that Biden will mop up 368 Electoral College votes, while Trump is expected to get 170 Electoral College votes. Besides, securing the Popular Vote, the presidential nominees have to secure 270 Electoral College votes (Majority mark) to win the Presidency.

Besides this elections are also being held for the Senate (upper house) and to elect 6,000 state legislators across 44 states. In the case of the Senate, the Democrats are expected to bag 53 seats, the Grand Old Party (GOP) or the Republicans are expected to get 46 seats, with one seat being labeled as a tie.

The Electoral College votes assigned to each state were based on the 2010 US Census and were valid for 2012, 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections. The Electoral College voters are nominated by the respective political parties at partys national or state level conventions, both before the elections, and during the elections. These electors are expected to vote for the candidate of the party they represent or are nominated by.

However, the US Supreme Court in its July 6 Chiafalo – vs – Washington judgment related to the 2016 Presidential elections in which some electoral college voters had cross-voted, had ruled that the electoral college voters henceforth could not cross-vote and must vote for the party candidate. Trump had benefited immensely in 2016 from the cross-voting.

As we have stated earlier, for Trump it all depends on which way the Toss-up states vote. Moreover, many states in the US have their own laws for Presidential elections wherein some states have a “winner takes it all” votes norm, a presidential candidate sweeping the entire state.

Secondly, the Presidential polls are using Paper Ballot and counting of votes will take time. Already accusations are flying thick and fast over what Republicans are calling missing Mail-in-Ballot votes. To make matters worse the US Supreme Court has not granted any relief to the GOP in respect of the missing Mail-in-Ballot votes in Pennsylvania. 

The 1948, 2000 and 2016 polls have bucked the national trend and delivered shocking upset results. With the authorities already bracing for civil unrest post the elections, the businesses are also barricading and protecting their establishments from possible rioting.

Prashant Hamine
Prashant Hamine
News Editor - He has more than 25 years of experience in English journalism. He had worked with DNA, Free Press Journal and Afternoon Dispatch. He covers politics.
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