Why a Biden-Harris Presidency may not be good news for India

Pollsters and Media got it all wrong in past three US Presidential elections of Truman (1948), George W Bush (2000) and Donald J Trump (2016. In 2016, nearly 80% had predicted Hillary to win, instead Trump won on the basis of Electoral College votes.

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: Most India watchers dread the prospect of a likely Biden-Harris Presidency, ahead of the November 3 US Presidential election day. Although most of US pollsters and a section of the media are predicting a victory for Democrat Presidential nominee Joe Biden and his Vice President running mate Kamala Harris ahead of the November 3 poll day, skeptics are still weary of Republican incumbent US President Donald J Trump to create an upset win.

There are pollsters like Project FiveThirtyEight that are still giving Trump a slim chance of retaining the Presidency. We at thenews21 had already stated on July 12 that securing the Popular Vote is not enough, the winner has to secure 270 Electoral College votes to secure the Presidency. And this election already promises to be a long drawn out affair.

As of now most of the Pollsters and media are on an average giving 52% chance of Biden victory as against 43% Trump victory. The predictions for the Electoral College votes, pollsters are predicting that Trump may get anywhere between 300 to 400 Electoral College votes as against 300 to 500 votes for Biden. Project FiveThirtyEight argues that Trump needs a really big polling error in his favour if he is going to win.

Also Read: Central Hall – Of Governors & scare of Presidents Rule

According to Gallup Americans view Biden as likeable and honest, and Trump as Strong. On the rest of the survey parameters Trump is viewed as more honest, trustworthy and good judgment. As against this most Americans favour Biden on issues like Likeability and Strong decisive leader.

What most India watchers argue that a Biden-Harris Presidency will mean a hard eye on Kashmir. Democrat Vice President nominee Kamala Harris has been sharp critic of India’s Kashmir policy. She has backed demand for international intervention, specifically the US. Her comments came after the revocation of Article 370.

In one of her interviews, she stated “we have to remind Kashmiri’s that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping track of the situation. There is need to intervene , if the situation demands”

According to general perception of policy experts, Democrats are less inclined towards India than Republicans. When Indian parliament passed the Citizenships Amendment Act (CAA) 5 Indian American US lawmakers, all Democrats, led by Pramila Jayapal spoke out against the bill and pushed for a resolution in the Congress on December 6, 2019 that called for withdrawal of all restrictions imposed by the Indian government after the revocation of Article 370. It may be recalled that after this India hardened its stance towards the Democrats as India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr S Jaishankar while on a recent visit to the US had declined to meet Jayapal.

Speaking to thenews21, Dev Karlekar a software consultant from Somerset, New Jersey argued that Trump is more pro-India than Biden. While Biden and Democrats are in favour of treating illegal immigrants with kid-gloves, Trump is talking about Making America Great Again. He added that nearly 70% to 80% of Caucasians (White Americans) dread the prospect of Democrats open door policy towards illegal immigrants.

He further opined that this election could be a long drawn out battle. Karlekar disclosed that voting process as well as the counting of votes has already begun as far as the Mail in Ballot or Postal Ballots are concerned. He added that since this is a paper ballot based election, it will take at least one to two weeks for all the votes to be fully counted. Trump campaign has already raised serious concerns over the missing postal ballot.

As of now out of the 15 crore voter population in an overall 33 crore population of the US, only 5 crore eligible voters have cast their ballot. Nearly, two-thirds have not cast their ballot as yet. Most of the voters will prefer casting their vote in person at the polling booth.

Another Indian American from the US, Ankur Sharma disclosed that at the moment Biden is going strong and there is a high probability of his winning. He added that there are projections that some of the Red states (Republican) may turn Blue (Democrat) this time, like Texas.

(Texas is the state in which the Howdy Modi event was held on September 22, 2019 at Houston attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald J Trump).

He further argued that this time around the voter turnout could be higher, as in early voting already more than 100 million people have voted which is more than 60% of the total voting of 2016 polls. Sharma too admitted that the main challenge is that of the Mail in Ballot. He further stated that with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the Mail in Ballot has already been challenged by Trump, it could certainly swing and impact the results significantly.

There are some pollsters who argue that predicting the results for the Republicans is slightly risky as what they call as “Shy Voters” of Republicans who are less inclined to share their opinion on vote over Telephone surveys.

Jen O’Malley, campaign manager for Joe Biden on October 18, has reportedly admitted that the national public polling numbers which show Biden overwhelmingly leading President Donald Trump are “inflated”.

There are some pollsters who are predicting a close race between Trump and Biden in some key US states like Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

There are some pollsters and critics who are still giving Trump an outside chance, based on what had happened in the 2016 elections. In the 2016 elections, Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost, that’s because the US uses an Electoral College system, so winning the most votes does not always win you the elections!

Some poll experts are pointing towards how pollsters and the media had got it all wrong on three occasions in the past. The most glaring and embarrassing (for the media) being the 1948 victory of sitting Democrat president Harry (Harold) S Truman. Pollsters had given no chance for Truman to win, so much so that the Chicago Daily Tribune (now Chicago Tribune) in its early morning edition on November 3, 1948 carried a banner headline – “Dewy Defeats Truman”.

In the final results, Truman had defeated his Republican challenger Thomas E Dewy by a huge margin. Truman had beaten all predictions securing 303 Electoral College votes as against 189 Electoral College votes. Truman had secured 2,41,79,347 votes, carried 28 states (swept states) at a percentage of 49.6%

As against this, Dewy had managed to secure just 189 Electoral College votes, carried 16 states (swept states) and polled 2,19,91,292 votes at a percentage of 45.1%. Truman who was then travelling in a train came out in the viewing gallery of his coach and with a big smile on his face held aloft the Chicago Daily Tribune whose banner headline read thus “Dewy Defeats Truman”.

But it was the 2000 Presidential contest between Al Gore (Democrat) and Republican George W Bush. It was a neck-and-neck contest as far as Popular Votes were concerned. Gore secured 5,09,92,335 popular votes at a percentage of 48.38%. As against this Bush had polled 5,04,45,156 popular votes at a percentage of 47.87%.

In the Senate the Republicans and Democrats won 50 percent seats each leading to a grid-lock. In the House of Representatives (Congress) the Republicans had 221 seats as against the 212 seats for the Democrats and 2 seats won by Independents. Even in the case of Electoral College votes Gore had secured 266 votes as against 271 votes by Bush.

It was a close contest between Gore and Bush all the way. Al Gore won around half a million more votes than George W Bush, but Bush won the Presidency.

While both the 1948 and 2000 poll results were thing of the past, some critics point fingers at the 2016 polls wherein Donald J Trump had emerged at the President. The share of popular vote of Hillary Clinton over Trump was larger by 3 million votes, yet she lost

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) had polled 6,58,53,514 votes at a percentage of 48.18%. While, Trump (Republican) polled 6,29,84,828 votes at a percentage of 46.09%. However, it was the Electoral College votes that sealed the fate of Clinton despite the fact that 80% had predicted her win. Clinton had secured just 227 Electoral College votes as against 304 Electoral College votes by Trump.

There are similar two parallels in history in the United Kingdom (Great Britain). In 1951, the Labour Party had got more votes than the Conservatives (Tories), but it was the Tories won more seats. The situation was reversed in 1974, when the Tories won more votes, but it was the Labour which won more seats. 

The November 3, 2020 US Presidential election appears to be going down in the history of US elections as one in which the Democrats appear to be raising and spending more money than their Republican rivals. As per the US Federal Election Commission (FEC), Democrats have so far raised 3,026,233,856 million US$ for the poll campaign, whereas, the Republicans have raised  621,263,081 million US$ and 72,201,656 million US$ by Other candidates. All the candidates put together have raised a total of 3,719,698,593 million US$.

For individual candidates who have raised more funds include former New York Mayor and Democrat Michael R Bloomberg (briefly in the fray) 1,119,411, 494.07 million US$, Joe Biden (Democrat) 952,239,369.70 million US$, Donald Trump (Republican) 601,392,178.39 million US$ and Kamala Harris 42,085,872.17 million US$.

In terms of spending the Democrats have so far spent 2,861,561,695 million US$, Republicans 585,182, 819 million US$ and Other candidates 70,177,025 million US$. Spending by individual candidates is as follows: Michael R Bloomberg 1,119,298,328.28 million US$, Joe Biden 790,193, 382.80 million US$, Donald Trump 565,389,516.57 million US$ and Kamala Harris 41,870,657.33 million US$. Overall so far all the candidates in this election have so far spent a total of 3,516,921,540 million US$.