Vidarbha halted BJP’s juggernaut, worrying signs for Sena in Konkan belt
Mumbai: Did the state Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership err by realigning with its estranged former ally the Shiv Sena in the 2019 assembly polls? Analysis of the election data of the past three assembly elections of 2009, 2014 and 2019, seems to suggest that the two sparring saffron parties fared much better when they fought elections independently, rather than in alliance as was the case in the 2009 and 2019 polls.
But the alarm bells must surely be ringing at the Sena Bhavan and within the Sena after what has transpired in the intervening years between 2009 and 2019, more so in the aftermath of the 2019 polls.
The Sena leadership got a scare of its life in the 2017 elections to Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) when the BJP came almost within whiskers distance of snatching power in its own Mumbai bastion.
If its Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) survives till 2022, then it might have to share its BMC power pie with its new found allies the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Already the BJP is cozying up with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) for the ensuing Aurangabad and Navi Mumbai municipal corporations.
It is little wonder then that Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is still harping on the Hindutva plank. Sensing the Sena’s discomfortiture the MNS chose to hold its 14th foundation day celebrations in Navi Mumbai on March 9 and Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti at Aurangabad on March 12.
The BJP has been steadily gaining strength in the Konkan region. The BJP which had won just 10 assembly seats from Konkan region in the 2009 polls increased its tally to 25 seats in 2014 – that was when it fought independently of the Sena, it added two more seats to its 2014 tally to take it to 27 in the 2019 polls.
Correspondingly, the Sena which had won 13 seats in 2009 polls increased its tally identically (of BJP) by 15 to 28 seats in 2014, when it contested on its own. However, the Sena could only increase its tally by just 1 seat to 29 seats in 2019 polls.
The Sena’s overall performance was hampered by the setback it received in Western Maharashtra and failed to improve on its performance in Khandesh (North Maharashtra) and Marathwada regions.
While, the BJP may have been steadily improving on its performance in the Konkan region, its decision to realign with the Sena and its aftermath has raised several questions.
The BJP which had gained a massive 85.90 lakh vote share in the 2014 assembly elections, saw it being almost wiped out in the 2019 polls by 71.35 lakhs, but still managed to hold on to a positive vote share of 14.55 lakh votes.
The BJP fell short of even its 2014 tally of 122 seats, by 17 seats in 2019 polls. Of the 17 seats, the BJP lost 15 of them in Vidarbha region alone, and more particularly 11 seats out of the 15 seats were lost in its former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’s own Nagpur district bastion. Although, Pankaja Munde may have lost her Beed district bastion, the BJP actually increased its tally by 1 seat to 16 seats in Marathwada region in the 2019 elections.
The BJP suffered electoral damage in Western Maharashtra due to the floods in Kolhapur and Sangli districts and the Maratha job quota agitation. The BJP lost two seats and its tally came down to 17 seats in this election. The BJP lost both the seats it had earlier held in Kolhapur district and two out of the four seats in Sangli district.
But it was the Sena which suffered a huge setback in Western Maharashtra. The Sena has been perceived as the real challenger to the clout of the Congress and the NCP in the region. The Sena lost five out of the six seats it held in Kolhapur and managed to retain one seat in Sangli district.
After the 2019 assembly elections while the BJP has virtually no electoral presence in Ratnagiri district, the Sena on the other hand has virtually no electoral presence in six districts of – Nandurbar, Washim, Gondiya, Gadchiroli, Beed and Latur.
Both BJP and Sena are strong in Konkan region and one can expect sparks to fly off between them during future elections as they seek domination over the region. Besides Konkan region, the BJP is strong in Vidarbha region and Sena in the Marathwada region.
From playing the second fiddle to posing as the real challenger to Sena’s supremacy the BJP has slowly expanded its support base in Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nashik belt. It has almost caught up with the Sena in Mumbai and Thane.
The BJP now dominates 11 urbanized districts’ that include Jalgaon, Nagpur, Palghar, Ahmednagar, Solapur and Kolhapur. Sena is still able to hold on to its domination by a slender margin over Mumbai Suburban district.
