Fourteen years later downslide appears to be slowing down, but can the MNS bounce back from the brink?

Mumbai: It has been 14 years since Raj Thackeray founded his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) on March 9, 2006 in Mumbai. While the political journey of Raj Thackeray and the MNS may point towards a rapid decline, the party’s decade long electoral journey from 2009 to 2019 assembly elections, numerically indicates that the electoral downslide appears to be slowing down.

The multi-million dollar question is can Raj Thackeray and his MNS make the course correction to stay politically relevant, so as to reap its electoral dividends?

Here we will focus more on the electoral performance of the MNS in the last three assembly elections of 2009, 2014 and 2019.

Going by the numbers game, although it’s electoral stock of 13 MLA’s in 2009 has come down to just 1 MLA in 2014 and 2019 assembly elections. Compared to Shiv Sena and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the decline of vote share of MNS is lesser than what the Sena and BJP have lost between the 2014 and 2019 elections.

The vote share of the MNS declined sharply between 2009 and 2014 elections, a loss of 9,91,295 lakh votes. Significantly, the MNS vote share has declined marginally by 3,12,100 lakh between the 2014 and 2019 polls. Overall, between 2009 and 2019, the MNS vote share declined 13,03,395 votes.

As compared to the MNS, the Sena vote share between 2009 and 2014 polls declined by 28,75,269 lakh. Whereas, the vote share further declined by 32,53,986 lakh between 2014 and 2019 polls, with an overall drop of 3,78,717 lakh votes between 2009 and 2019 polls.

In comparison, the BJP vote share between 2009 and 2014 elections dramatically increased by a whopping 85,90,894 lakh. If the BJP vote share increased in the 2014 assembly elections when it snapped ties with the Sena, that same vote share saw a sharp decline of 71,35,156 lakh votes in the 2019 assembly elections when it realigned with the Sena. However, the BJP still has an overall healthy positive vote share of 14,55,738 lakh between 2009 and 2019 polls.

A lot has already been talked about dwindling political stock of the MNS and its constant vacillating stance on key issues. In January earlier this year, the party has reinvented itself and gone back on its old Hindutva plank with a new saffronised party flag.

That old Hindutva plank had paid rich dividends for it when it entered the electoral battle field for the first time in the 2009 assembly elections. It then had basked under the shower of accolades heaped on it after having knocked the succor punch to its arch rival Shiv Sena, denying it and the BJP of wresting power from the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

The MNS had caused more electoral damage to both the Sena and the BJP in the 2009 polls, in equal measure in the 2014 assembly polls, and more to the Sena, than to the BJP in the 2019 polls.

In the 2009 polls, the MNS had damaged the poll prospects of the Sena-BJP alliance in 56 seats, Sena in 38 seats and in 18 seats for the BJP. In the 2014 assembly elections, the MNS damaged the poll prospects of both the Sena and the BJP in 19 assembly seats, each. In the 2019 assembly elections, the MNS damaged the poll prospects of the Sena in 7 seats and the BJP in just 2 seats.

Overall, the MNS has damaged the electoral prospects of the Shiv Sena more in the last three assembly elections held after the delimitation of assembly constituencies came into effect in 2007.

Another significant factor in the electoral journey of the MNS has been its electoral footprint across Maharashtra. From a healthy electoral presence in 10 districts in the 2009 polls, its electoral presence has come down to 5 districts in 2014 and 2019 polls.

Earlier, the MNS had significant electoral presence in 10 districts of – Aurangabad, Nashik, Thane, Palghar, Mumbai Suburban District, Mumbai City District, Raigad, Pune, Osmanabad and Ratnagiri districts. Now that electoral footprint has shrunk to just 5 districts of – Nashik, Thane, Mumbai Suburban District, Mumbai City District and Pune district.

The electoral performance of the MNS was more potent in 2009 as it garnered more than 10,000 votes in at least 76 assembly constituencies, ultimately winning 13 seats. In the 2014 assembly polls, the MNS got more than 10,000 votes in 57 assembly constituencies, but could win just 1 seat. That electoral performance came down even further to 39 seats, where the MNS got more than 10,000 votes, but again managed to win just 1 seat.

As stated above the vote share of the MNS has declined marginally by 3.12 lakh between 2014 and 2019. Correspondingly, the Sena vote share has declined by 32.53 lakh in the same timeframe and more drastically by 71.35 lakh votes for the BJP.

The loss of vote share between 2014 and 2019 assembly polls is more significant for the BJP and the Sena, than it is for the MNS. The party still has presence in 5 districts of – Nashik, Thane, Mumbai Suburban District, Mumbai City District and Pune district, which also happen to be the strongholds of the Sena and the BJP.

After having hit the electoral rock bottom, does the Steam Engine of the MNS has enough of steam still left to bounce back? The ensuing elections to Aurangabad and Navi Mumbai municipal corporation elections could just provide the answer. In 2012, the MNS had come to power in the Nashik municipal corporation. Will March 9 prove to be the turning point in the electoral fortunes of the MNS?