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Thiruvananthapuram: It is an irony of the current situation in Indian politics that the Congress space shrinks when the index of opposition unity moves a notch higher. Still, the grand old party (GOP) continues to claim itself as the sole national political force capable of taking on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) across the country.
The political coup staged by Janata Dal-United (JD-U) Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in Bihar has imparted a little vicarious pleasure to the Congress, as the BJP was upstaged by his crafty moves in a major Hindi heartland state. But this has come at a cost for the Congress, which now slips into the third slot in the state, to be content with a couple of ministerial berths.
Making matters worse for the GOP, Nitish Kumar has all of a sudden been hailed as a potential rival to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 national elections by many political quarters. It is a different matter that the Bihar Chief Minister, in all humility, has said that he does not nurture larger ambitions, at least for the time being.
In 2019, when the Congress took the risk of joining the Uddhav Thackeray –led government in Maharashtra, many an eyebrow was raised. Once a formidable force in the politically crucial state, Congress had to eschew its long-cherished secular credentials then. Top Congress leaders of the state like Ashok Chavan, however, did not show much hesitation in jumping the bandwagon, despite the long-term damage written clear on the wall.
Now, Congress is nowhere in the reckoning after the recent change of guard in Maharashtra. Clearly, the party has slipped into the fourth position in the state, if not still down the rung. In all likelihood, the allies would not be agreeing to Congress’s demand for a decent share of Lok Sabha seats in 2024.
The same is the story in vast stretches of the country’s political geography. Non-Congress opposition parties are making unsparing efforts to unseat the BJP at the centre by consolidating their position in the respective states. What they have in mind is a National Front-like post-election formation, and not the UPA-like front led by the Congress. In this unfolding dynamic, which has its own unpredictability, the Congress will be left to struggle for survival in the states where the regional parties are in power.
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Mighty regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal have sent clear signals that Congress does not figure prominently in their scheme of things. They have started seeing through the Congress’s claim of being the vanguard national force, capable of leading the grim battle against the formidable BJP.
In the prevailing scenario, Congress remains a central player only in a handful of states, including Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where the party is in power. The ensuing rounds of assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, followed by Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka are going to be do-or-die battles for the Congress. The party will be obliterated if it fares poorly in these states, where it will be pitted face-to-face with the BJP. Straws in the air are clear that it will not be easy for the party to romp home in these states.
This would ultimately mean the Congress would be picking up a handful of seats in Kerala alone, where the party still enjoys a good support base, coupled with growing disenchantment with the performance of the LDF government. It could also hope for a few seats in Tamil Nadu, thanks to the generosity of the trusted ally DMK, seated firmly on the saddle in the southern state.
Despite the grim scenario, the party’s first family and the courtiers around it seem blissfully unconcerned about the existential threat staring at them. After the much-touted Navsankalp Chintan Shivir in Udaipur, no serious attempt has been made to strengthen the organisational network. In many states, the rank-and-file are in utter desperation. The state-level leaders and office-bearers still continue to act like factional warlords.
The writ of the high command barely runs. And severest of all adverse factors is the precarious financial position of the party. Donors will no longer bankroll a party whose prospects are rather bleak.
But for sarcastic anti-Modi outbursts by Rahul Gandhi and verbal excesses of designated spokespersons on news channels, the party’s public opinion mobilization machinery is virtually silent. This was cited as a critical prop at the Udaipur brainstorming camp.
Barring regular invocation of secularism, democratic values and republican ideals, the Congress is yet to come out with a national political creed and action programme for the battles upfront. Workers on the grassroots are in the dark about the central narrative of the party. If drastic, last-ditch efforts are not made to reconfigure the organisation, Congress’s fading into history may not be far off.
