Thiruvananthapuram: A drubbing in the local body elections has dimmed the prospects of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) clinching a hat-trick victory in the Kerala Assembly polls scheduled just a few months from now.
Benefiting from a silent anti-incumbency wave, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) emerged in flying colours in the polls that concluded the other day.
The BJP emerged victorious in the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation and also made its presence felt across several parts of the state by registering incremental gains at the expense of both the major fronts.
The LDF, particularly its lead partner CPI(M), suffered heavy losses, with several of its time-tested strongholds falling to the UDF. Out of the six city corporations, the LDF managed to retain only Kozhikode, losing Kochi, Thrissur, Kollam and Kannur. In the state capital, the BJP humbled both fronts.
The LDF also suffered significant setbacks in village, block and district panchayats, jolting the CPI(M) leadership.
Significantly, the UDF—especially its vanguard Congress—was handed this heartening result on a platter despite running a lacklustre campaign compared to the LDF and the BJP. This outcome reflects the deep resentment among the electorate towards the LDF government and CPI(M) leaders at various levels.
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Till the final lap of the campaign, the CPI(M) leadership failed to accurately gauge public sentiment at the grassroots. The results underscore the message that organisational might and micro-management alone are insufficient to deliver electoral success.
Widespread public revulsion triggered by issues such as the alleged gold theft at the Sabarimala temple also impacted the elections. Two former presidents of the Travancore Devaswom Board—both appointees of the LDF government—were arrested in connection with the case. However, the CPI(M) leadership has refrained from unequivocally denouncing them.
The outcome has come as a booster shot for the Congress. Projections based on the local body poll results suggest that in the forthcoming Assembly elections, the UDF could aspire to a tally of up to 80 seats in the 140-member House.
The UDF wrested seats from the LDF across all regions of the state—Travancore, Kochi and Malabar. The coalition appears to have regained much of its eroded ground, particularly in constituencies where Muslim and Christian minorities play a decisive role.
Besides the Congress, the UDF’s second-largest partner, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), also put up a strong performance in its traditional strongholds in the Malabar region.
On the other hand, the CPI(M)’s minority outreach project failed to click, with the Sabarimala scam casting a shadow over its tactical shift.
The BJP’s victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation has amplified the party’s growing acceptability in the capital city. According to Karamana Jayan, the BJP’s district (city) president, the party approached the campaign with meticulous planning. Candidates were selected primarily on the basis of winnability and track record, and a door-to-door campaign was conducted in every nook and corner of the city. Inclusive and sustainable development, along with clean and transparent governance, were highlighted as key campaign themes.
Jayan said the iconic stature of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was also a major factor influencing urban voters.
The success in the capital has further strengthened the standing of state BJP president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who announced during the campaign that he would contest the Assembly elections from a constituency in the city.
Despite its incremental gains across the state, the Assembly polls remain a formidable challenge for the BJP. The influence of minority communities in a large number of Assembly constituencies continues to pose a significant hurdle for the party.
The UDF’s resounding success could also impede the BJP’s plans to attract a section of Christian voters. Historically, the UDF has been the preferred choice of Kerala’s Christian community, and a resurgent UDF is likely to reinforce that loyalty.
