Amit Shah’s Assertion: Will BJP Walk the Talk in Kerala?

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Thiruvananthapuram: Union Home Minister and BJP’s supreme strategist Amit Shah, the other day, made an assertion that his party would form the next government in the state of Kerala.

Shah was addressing a rally in the state capital as part of his visit to the city to inaugurate the party’s newly built state committee office.

Had it not been from Amit Shah, this statement would have been dismissed as nothing but bravado to infuse a little more energy into the party’s state apparatus. But since it came from a no-nonsense tactician, reputed for micro-management, the statement spurred some buzz in media as well as political circles.

It would, however, be hard for any sensible observer of Kerala politics to think that Shah really meant his party would pull off a miracle in the assembly polls due in a few months.

A rational conclusion could be that Shah was giving a call to the state party unit to work hard and get its strategies right to notch up at least some decent numbers in the assembly—from nothing where it stands now.

Kerala was among the few states that had consistently negated the BJP, before it made a breakthrough when the now Union Minister and cine actor Suresh Gopi won from the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat last year. Its previous electoral high point was when old guard O. Rajagopal was elected as the party’s one and only legislator in 2016. But it drew a blank in the 2021 assembly polls.

BJP’s has been a one-step-forward-two-steps-back story in Kerala.

The party has, over the years, built an extensive organisational network in Kerala, stretching down to the grassroots. It boasts of a dedicated and hard-working cadre. The party has broadened its social base in the state, especially after coming to power at the Centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Still, it has failed to convert this momentum into sustainable electoral returns, barring some gains it made in civic polls.

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The most constricting factor that stunts BJP’s electoral growth lies in the state’s demographic composition, where minorities account for nearly 50% of the population.

This unalterable reality leaves just two options before the essentially pro-Hindu party to cut the binding knot. Either it should emerge as the overwhelming choice of the Hindus, cutting across caste, class, and political divides, or it should strive to gain the confidence of at least a section of the minorities. Both, however, are difficult to achieve. The party’s much-touted “social engineering” that worked in northern states has limited scope in Kerala.

Amid this bleak socio-political scenario, the party has for quite some time been making strategic overtures to the Christian minority, which makes up over 15 per cent of the state’s population.

However, unlike the outside perception, Christians in Kerala are not of a single block. They are as disparate as various Hindu caste-based communities, belonging to multiple church establishments. The BJP’s target has been the elite and affluent Syrian Catholic and Orthodox communities.

Though the party has made some inroads into this ecosystem, it still remains an unreliable bet.

The recent incidents of attacks on Christian missionary-run institutions in northern states have thrown a spanner into the BJP’s Kerala strategies.

Under its present state president Rajiv Chandrasekhar, the party is focusing on the ‘Vikasith Kerala’ slogan. Obviously, it is trying to position itself as an inclusive and forward-looking alternative to the CPI (M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF.

Consolidating his grip on the party apparatus, the techno entrepreneur-turned-politician has been able to win the confidence of the central leadership. He has brought to a halt the patron-beneficiary ecosystem that fostered under his predecessors, making it clear that merit and hard work will alone be rewarded. This was reflected in the recent organisational revamp.

But aggregating all these pluses and minuses, it is still hard to believe that the party is poised for a political tsunami in the state.

All that said, the local body elections, due before the year closes, will set the ground to test the efficacy of various permutations and combinations.