Takeaway from 2022: Congress may find it hard to notch up a double-digit tally in 2024

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Thiruvananthapuram: The prospects are bleak for the Indian National Congress. The state of the Grand Old Party is so brittle that even a leadership change or organisational overhaul is unlikely to transform it into a war-fit outfit for the tough battles upfront.

If the electoral sentiments of the just-concluded state assembly elections prevail, Congress may find it even hard even to notch up a double-digit tally in 2024 parliament elections.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress bagged 52 seats (the current strength is 53). The largest contingent of 15 came from Kerala, followed by 8 each from Punjab and Tamil Nadu. The remaining seats were picked up in ones and twos from a few other states. The party drew a virtual blank in vast swaths of the electoral geography stretching over regions.

Having been routed by the CPI(M) led LDF in assembly polls last year, the Congress, and the UDF coalition it heads is in the doldrums in Kerala. In 2019, the alliance had put up a sterling performance cashing in on the widespread apathy towards the first Pinarayi Vijayan government. The regime’s rigid stance over the vexed issue of allowing women of all ages to the Sabarimala temple had then alienated major sections of the Hindu fold. The Muslim and Christian minorities, who together account for nearly 50 per cent of Kerala’s population, had reposed trust in the Congress-led by Rahul Gandhi as the secular vanguard strong enough to unseat the BJP at the Centre. Rahul Gandhi himself got elected from Wayanad in the state with a thumping majority. The UDF bagged 19 out of the 20 seats up for grab.

The state’s political architecture has got altered over the last three years. The LDF has quietly abandoned its ‘pro-reform’ position on the Sabarimala temple issue, allowing the tradition to prevail. The CPI(M) is now going out of the way to woo the minorities. On their part, the minorities themselves have lost much of their faith in the family-led Congress as the strongest contender for the secular space at the national level.

The CPI(M) has organizationally strengthened itself for future battles under the firm leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Lifting the maximum number of seats from Kerala is the next big target for the party. The left has not much to hope from other parts of the country.

In Kerala’s bipolar electoral contest, the Congress and its weakened partners, including the second big constituent Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), will find it tough to battle it out with the LDF. The BJP is organizationally too weak and sagged by demographic constrained, which is unlikely to pose a serious challenge to either of the main coalition.

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Having decimated in Punjab, it will be a stupendous task for Congress to resurrect itself to pose a grim challenge to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in parliament polls.

Now, the grim electoral challenge before the party is assembly elections in Gujarat later this year, followed by Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka early next year. These are states where the BJP and Congress lock in straight combat. Emboldened by its resounding victory in Uttar Pradesh and three other states, the BJP will make its best to see the Congress is routed. Even if Congress performs well in the next round of assembly polls, the party need not be able to repeat that in parliament polls, as had shown by the 2019 elections.

Congress has also to contend with the expansion of AAP beyond Delhi. Having annexed Punjab, AAP is sure to make a serious bid in some of these states. The electoral gains of AAP, positioning itself as a credible alternative to the BJP, can hurt Congress more than the saffron party.

The Congress’s stock among the regional parties too has plummeted. Even reliable allies like DMK in Tamil Nadu will be reluctant to accommodate its demand for a handsome share of parliament seats. In 2019, Congress lifted 8 seats from Tamil Nadu, entirely due to the generosity of the DMK. That may not be the case next time.

The ruling parties in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are also averse to striking a pre-poll alliance with the Congress. Instead, they have been making a pitch for a broad anti-BJP front of regional parties who can come together after elections. They do not see any major role for Congress in this scheme. In Maharashtra, where Congress is a junior partner in the ruling front, the party is unlikely to get a good number of seats to contest.

Since 2018, after its promising performance in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, Congress has been consistently routed in all elections. At the end of every defeat, the party’s clichéd reaction had been that it would introspect and correct. But nothing has happened.

All these highly constricting factors boil down to the central question. Will Congress be able to match even its 2019 tally in the next Lok Sabha? The answer is obvious. It will be a stupendous task unless the decrepit chariot is lifted out of the rut where it stays stuck.