Putin’s War Hits Year Three: Cracks, Casualties, and Consequences

X: @vivekbhavsar

New Delhi: February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—a conflict that has profoundly altered global dynamics, strained alliances, and tested the resilience of both nations involved. While Moscow’s initial strategy aimed for a swift victory, the war has devolved into a protracted and costly stalemate. Recent developments indicate not only a shift in military and economic landscapes but also a significant erosion of support for the war within Russia itself.

The conflict has become a grueling war of attrition. Ukrainian forces, despite receiving Western aid, grapple with shortages in ammunition and personnel. Conversely, Russian troops face high casualty rates and dwindling morale. Estimates suggest that Russian military losses have surpassed half a million, leading to internal discord and reports of desertions. The lack of decisive victories has further exacerbated tensions within Russia’s military hierarchy, with infighting reported between regular forces and private military contractors.

Russia’s economy is buckling under the weight of sustained international sanctions. The Kremlin’s attempts to circumvent these restrictions through clandestine trade with nations like Iran, North Korea, and China have proven insufficient. The Russian ruble has depreciated significantly, inflation is on the rise, and labor shortages are becoming acute as conscription drives young men to flee or face the front lines. Revenue from oil and gas, once the backbone of Russia’s economy, has been severely impacted by Western-imposed price caps and a concerted effort by European nations to reduce energy dependence on Moscow. Notably, Russia’s National Wealth Fund has shrunk to $31 billion, down from $210 billion in June 2022—a staggering decline. 

Despite the Kremlin’s tight grip on information, signs of public dissent are emerging. Independent polls, though limited due to state censorship, indicate a decline in support for the war. Families of fallen soldiers are voicing their grievances, and the economic hardships faced by the general populace are fueling discontent. Social media, albeit heavily monitored, has become a platform for subtle expressions of opposition. Notably, within Russia’s elite circles, there are murmurs of disapproval and discussions about a post-Putin era.

Ukraine’s steadfast resistance is met with a complex international backdrop. Political debates within Western nations regarding the continuation of military aid have led to delays in critical support. The U.S. Congress remains divided, with some members advocating for a pivot towards addressing challenges posed by China. European countries, while largely supportive, are contending with domestic issues such as rising costs and the influx of refugees. NATO, however, has reinforced its eastern defenses, signaling a readiness to respond should the conflict spill beyond Ukraine’s borders.

President Vladimir Putin’s once unassailable authority appears to be waning. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, in 2023 following a failed mutiny, highlighted fractures within Russia’s military leadership. Corruption, logistical failures, and growing tensions between the Defense Ministry and Kremlin-affiliated militias underscore the systemic issues plaguing Russia’s war efforts.

China, initially a steadfast partner to Russia, has adopted a more cautious stance. While benefiting from discounted Russian energy exports, Beijing has refrained from providing direct military assistance, wary of attracting Western sanctions and global condemnation. This cautious approach reflects China’s broader strategic calculations, especially concerning its interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

As the war enters its fourth year, the trajectory remains uncertain. Ukraine continues to demonstrate resilience, bolstered by international support, yet faces significant challenges on multiple fronts. Russia, despite its vast resources, is contending with economic decline, military setbacks, and a fracturing societal consensus. The critical question looms: will President Putin adapt his strategy to navigate these mounting pressures, or will the very foundations of his leadership be undermined by the protracted conflict he instigated?