Mahayuti expected to have a cakewalk in March 27 MLC polls for 5 EMLA seats

X: @prashanthamine

Mumbai: Notwithstanding the internal rumblings, the ruling Mahayuti alliance is expected to have a cakewalk in the March 27 elections to the 5 vacancies in the Elected by Members of the Legislative Assembly (EMLA) constituencies in the Legislative Council. With numbers heavily stacked against them in the electoral college of the lower house, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) virtually stands no chance of winning any of the five MLC seats. In all probability all the five probable Mahayuti candidates might well be elected unopposed.

As per the latest numerical party-wise and alliance strength in the Legislative Assembly – the ruling Mahayuti alliance of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde faction (SS-ES) and the Nationalist Congress Party Ajit Pawar faction (NCP-AP) have brute majority of 234 MLAs.

Whereas, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising of Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction (SS-UBT), NCP Sharad Pawar faction (NCP-SP) and the Congress have a combined strength of just 51 MLAs.

Given the strength of 288 MLAs in the lower house, the quota of votes needed for a candidate to get elected to the upper house is 58.6 votes.

The BJP with 132 MLAs can comfortably get two of its candidates elected and will need 43 votes to get its third candidate elected. The SS-ES faction which has 57 MLAs, needs 1 extra vote to get one candidate elected. Whereas, the NCP-AP faction which has 41 MLAs, needs 17 more votes to get its candidate elected.

On the other hand, the opposition MVA combined has a strength of 51 MLAs, which is 7 votes short of the quota of 58.6 votes.

The SS-UBT faction has just 20 MLAs in the lower house, and needs 38 more votes to get one candidate elected. The Congress has 16 MLAs and needs 42 more votes to get one candidate elected. Whereas, the NCP-SP faction has just 10 MLAs in the lower house and needs 48 more votes to get one candidate elected. The other MVA alliance partners together have a combined strength of just 7 votes and will need 51 more votes to get their consensus candidate elected.

Late on March 3, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the poll schedule for the five vacancies caused due to resignation of five sitting Legislative Council members after they got elected to the Legislative Assembly in November 2024. As per section 3(2) (1) of the Bombay Prohibition of Simultaneous Membership Act, 1957, the members are not allowed to keep simultaneous memberships of both the houses of the state legislature.

The party-wise breakup of the five MLCs who resigned from their membership on November 23, 2024 are as follows: Pravin Datke, Ramesh Karad and Gopichand Padalkar – all BJP, Amashya F Padvi of the Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde faction and Rajesh Vitekar of the NCP Ajit Pawar faction.

In the November 2024 Assembly elections, Pravin Datke won from Nagpur Central  seat, Ramesh Karad from the Latur Rural seat and Gopichand Padalkar from the Jat assembly seat. While Amashya Padvi won from the Akkalkuwa seat and Rajesh Vitekar won from the Pathri assembly seat.

The term of membership of Amashya Padvi in the upper house was to expire on July 7, 2028, that of Pravin Datke on May 13, 2026, Rajesh Vitekar on July 27, 2030, Ramesh Karad on May 13, 2026 and that of Gopichand Padalkar also on May 13, 2026.

November 2024 Assembly election results – Final Tally:

BJP – 132.

Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) – 57.

Nationalist Congress Party -NCP – (Ajit Pawar) – 41.

Shiv Sena – Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray – SHSUBT – 20.

Indian National Congress – INC – Congress – 16.

Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar – NCPSP – 10.

Samajwadi Party – SP – 2.

Jana Surajya Shakti – JSS – 2.

Rashtriya Yuva Swabhiman Party – RSHYVSWBHM – 1.

Rashtriya Samaj Paksha – RSPS – 1.

All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen – AIMIM – 1.

Communist Party of India (Marxist) – CPI (M) – 1.

Peasants and Workers Party of India – PWPI – 1.

Rajarshi Shahu Vikas Aghadi – RSVA – 1.

Independent – IND – 2.

Mahayuti:

BJP – 132

Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) – 57.

Nationalist Congress Party -NCP – (Ajit Pawar) – 41.

Jana Surajya Shakti – JSS – 2.

Rashtriya Samaj Paksha – RSPS – 1.

Independent – 1.

Total = 234.

Maha Vikas Aghadi – (MVA):

Shiv Sena – Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray – SHSUBT – 20.

Indian National Congress – INC – Congress – 16.

Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar – NCPSP – 10.

Samajwadi Party – SP – 2.

All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen – AIMIM – 1.

Communist Party of India (Marxist) – CPI (M) – 1.

Peasants and Workers Party of India – PWPI – 1.

Total = 51.