Losing key state assemblies could hurt BJP’s chances in biennial Rajya Sabha polls

Mumbai: Losing key state assembly elections like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Rajasthan could well hurt the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the March 26 biennial elections to 55 Rajya Sabha seats spread across 17 state’s, of which 44 seats are from 10 big state’s. Prominent among those who are retiring in April 2020 include – Sharad Pawar (NCP), Ramdas Athawale (RPI-A), Motilal Vora (Congress), Digvijay Singh (Congress), Vijay Goel (BJP) among others. All eyes will be on the contests in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar.

Of the 17 state’s, the BJP is in power on its own in Assam, Himachal Pradesh and in Gujarat. The BJP shares power in Bihar, Haryana, Manipur and Meghalaya, where it will have to depend upon the benevolence of its ruling alliance partners. The BJP has lost power in key big state’s like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in recent times which alone account for 13 of the 55 seats.

The largest number of Rajya Sabha members retiring – 7 are from Maharashtra, and they include – Husain Dalwai (Congress), Amar Sable (BJP), Rajkumar Dhoot (Shiv Sena), Sharad Pawar and Advocate Majid Memon (both NCP), Union Minister for Social Justice, Ramdas Athawale (RPI-A) and Sanjay Kakde (Independent).

State wise total number of RS MP’s retiring in April 2020 are as follows: Odisha 4, Tamil Nadu 6, West Bengal 5, Andhra Pradesh 4, Telangana 2, Assam 3, Bihar 5, Chhattisgarh 2, Gujarat 4, Haryana 2, Himachal Pradesh 1, Jharkhand 2, Madhya Pradesh 3, Meghalaya 1 and Rajasthan 3.

Prominent among those RS MP’s retiring from other 16 state’s include – Odisha – Ranjib Biswal (Congress), Tamil Nadu – Sasikala Pushpa (AIADMK) and Tiruchi Siva (DMK), West Bengal – Ritabrata Banerjee (Independent), Assam – Dr Sanjay Sinh (Congress), Bihar – Dr C P Thakur (BJP), Chhattisgarh – Motilal Vora (Congress), Haryana – Kumari Selja (Congress), Madhya Pradesh – Digvijay Singh and Rajasthan – Vijay Goel (BJP).

As per the poll schedule announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on Tuesday – the notification for the poll will be issued on March 6, last date for filing of nomination papers is March 13, scrutiny of nomination papers will be taken up on March 16, last date for withdrawal of nomination papers is March 18, date of poll – March 26 (9 am to 4 pm) and counting of votes – March 26 (5 pm onwards), Thursday.

While the BJP can manage to get its candidates elected from – Assam, Bihar, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur and Meghalaya, it will have to struggle hard to get its candidate’s from – Maharashtra, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Already there is considerable heat being generated in Maharashtra over the candidature for the seven seats. Since the strength of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly is 288, the required quota of votes needed for an candidate to win the election is 37 votes. Besides, this the voting will take place by open ballot, wherein the Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) will have to show the preference of their vote to their respective parties election agents, cutting out possibility of cross-voting or horse-trading.

In such a scenario, the BJP on its own strength, at best can get 2 of its candidates elected comfortably, while it will need 6 more votes to get its third candidate elected, that is, if it chooses to take the risk in fielding one. Whereas, the Shiv Sena, Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) can comfortably get 4 of its candidates, whereas it will require 31 more votes to get a fifth candidate elected.

The entire electoral game will revolve around the 13 Independent MLAs and smaller parties which alone account for 35 MLAs. But getting all of them on board, on one’s side will be a herculean task. Given the fact that this election is held by open ballot, taking the risk of defying party whip is huge. Hence in all probability, both the ruling and opposition will strike a deal in ensuring that the elections are held “unopposed”.

The BJP will have to re-nominate RPI-A leader and Union Minister for Social Justice Ramdas Athawale. There are talks that the party is keen on nominating Udayanraje Bhosale following his defeat in the Satara Lok Sabha bye-election after switching sides from NCP to BJP. It remains to be seen whether the BJP fields a third candidate in the poll fray.

The current party wise strength in the 288 member Legislative Assembly is as follows: AIMIM 2, BVA 3, BJP 105, CPI-M 1, Independent’s 13, Congress 44, JSS 1, KSP 1, MNS 1, NCP 54, PWP-I 1, PJP 2, RSP 1, Samajwadi Party 2, Shiv Sena 56, Swabhimani Paksha 1.

In the 245 member Rajya Sabha, the party wise strength as of December 11, 2019 is as follows: BJP 83, Congress 46, TMC 13, AIADMK 11, SP 9, BJD 7, Independent’s & Others 6, JD-U 6, TRS 6, CPI-M 5, DMK 5, BSP 4, NCP 4, Nominated 4, RJD 4, Shiv Sena 3, SAD 3, AAP 3, TDP 2, YSRCP 2, JKPDP 2, JD-S 1, RPI-A 1, NPF 1, PMK 1, SDF 1, AGP 1, CPI 1, BPF 1, IUML 1 and KC-M 1.