It will not be until the 2031 population Census that the Presidential electoral college will see any drastic changes

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: It will not be until the first population Census published after 2026, that is the population Census of 2031, that one will see any drastic changes being made to the electoral college created to elect the President of India. Intriguing provisions to this effect were made in the Constitution (Eighty-fourth) Amendment Act, enacted in 2001 itself.

In effect it means that from the 1971 population Census onwards, it will be 51 years after that there will be any changes made to the way the electoral college is created for the election to the office of the President of India.

According to the United Nations 2022 edition of the World Population Projections, India is expected to overtake China as being the most populous country in the world by 2023! The world body in its report predicts that India will have a population of 1.66 billion in 2050, ahead of China’s 1.317 billion around that time. In its earlier estimates, the UN had projected that India would overtake China in terms of population by 2027.

According to World Population Review, India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country around 2024, but like China, the growth is expected to stagnate and eventually decrease in the latter half of the 21st century.

The Census Commissioner of India and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare had in its report of July 9, 2020, made projections for population growth between 2011 to 2036, based on the 2011 population Census data.

As per the Government of India’s own report, the population of India is likely to rise from 121.1 crores in 2011 to 152.2 crores in 2036, a 31.1crore rise. The population will go up by 25.7% in 25 years, at the rate of 1% per year. As a result, the density of population will rise from 368 persons per Sq. Km. to 463 persons per Sq. Km. The big states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal will alone account for this population rise.

Notwithstanding all these projections in population growth of India, the electoral college for the President of India till 2031, will be under-representative of the real population and the elected legislative bodies, both at the national and state level.

Despite these population growth projections for India, the Constitution (Eighty-fourth) Amendment Act, enacted in 2001 has effectively put a freeze on redrawing the electoral college for the Presidential elections until 2031, and will have to be done based on the 1971 Census data which is already 51 years old.

Here we will talk about the eligibility criteria required for a candidate to be contesting for the Presidential elections in India.

Broadly, besides the candidate needing to be a citizen of India, should have completed 35 years of age, should be qualified to contest a Lok Sabha election, the candidate needs to secure a subscription of at least 50 Electors (MPs and MLAs) each as proposers and seconders as well. The security deposit for the contesting candidate continues to be Rs. 15,000 only.

Criteria for contesting the Presidential elections:

For a valid nomination, the following qualifications and requirements are to be satisfied:

(a) The candidate should be a citizen of India;

(b) He / She should have completed the age of 35 years;

(c) He / She should be qualified for election as a member of Lok Sabha; and

(d) He / She should be registered as an elector in any Parliamentary Constituency in India.

(e) The candidate shall not hold any office of profit under the Government of India or the Govt. of any State or under any local or other authority subject to the control of any of the said Governments.

(f) A nomination paper of a candidate for the election in the prescribed form has to be subscribed by at least 50 electors as proposers and at least 50 electors as seconders. The proposer or seconder cannot sign on more than one nomination papers, if he or she does so, one of his or her signatures on either of the nomination papers will become inoperative.

(g) The nomination paper must be presented in person to the Returning Officer, either by the candidate himself or by any of his proposers or seconders.

(h) The security deposit for the election is Rs. 15,000/- which will be required to be made along with the nomination paper. This amount can either be deposited in cash with the Returning Officer at the time of presentation of the nomination paper or receipt showing that such amount has been deposited by the candidate or on his behalf in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) or in a Government Treasury can be furnished along with the nomination paper. The security deposit can’t be made in any other manner, like, cheque, demand draft, etc.

(i) Each nomination paper shall be accompanied by a certified copy of the entry relating to the candidate in the electoral roll for the Parliamentary constituency where he/she is registered as an elector.

The Electoral college –

The Electoral college for the Presidential elections comprises elected representatives of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies. Nominated members are not allowed to vote.

The total number of members in the Electoral College for the Presidential election in 2022 is 4,809, as detailed below:

House Seats.

(a) Rajya Sabha – 233

(b) Lok Sabha – 543

(c) State Assemblies – 4,033

Total – 4809.

Amidst all this, what is intriguing to note here is that as per the Constitution (Eighty-fourth) Amendment Act, 2001, until the relevant population figures for the first Census to be taken after the year 2026 have been published, for the purpose of calculation of value of votes of a State for the Presidential elections will still be determined on the basis of the 1971 Census.

The next Census after 2026 will be held in 2031, which should mean that the new norms will most probably be applicable for the Presidential elections in 2032, almost a decade from now.

Till then the value of votes of the MLAs in a particular state will be calculated on the basis of the 1971 Census population, divided by 1,000 and multiplied by the total number of seats in the Legislative Assembly, which gives the value of votes per MLA. The total value of votes of all the MLAs of each state Assembly is derived by multiplying the number of elective seats with the number of votes for each MLA.

For Illustration:

Total population of Andhra Pradesh (1971 census): 2,78,00,586

Total No of elective seats in the State Assembly: 175

No. of votes for each member:

2,78,00,586

——————-

1000 x 175

= 158.8605

= 159.

Total Value of votes of all members of each State Assembly is worked out by multiplying the number of elective seats in the Assembly by the number of votes for each member, e.g., 175×159=27,825 for Andhra Pradesh.

The total value of votes of all the States added together is divided by the total number of elected members of Parliament (Lok Sabha 543 + Rajya Sabha 233) to get the value of votes of each Member of Parliament.

Value of each vote of Members of Parliament:

Total Members = Lok Sabha (543) + Rajya Sabha (233) = 776

                                      5,43,231

Value of Each Vote = —————- = 700

                                         776

Total value of votes of 776 Members of Parliament = 700 X 776 = 5,43,200.

Total Electors for the Presidential Election = MLAs (4033) + MPs (776) = 4809

Total value of votes of 4809 Electors for the Presidential Election 2022 = 5,43,231 + 5,43,200 = 10,86,43

LS + RS = 543200

State – MLAs = 5,43,231

Total Value of Votes = 10,86,431

Quota for election:

After taking into consideration the valid votes, the quota of votes required to win the elections is determined by the Election Returning Officer.

After calculating the total value of votes polled by each candidate, the Returning Officer totals up the value of all valid votes polled. The quota for declaring a candidate as elected is determined by dividing the valid votes by 2 and adding one to the quotient, ignoring the remainder, if any.

For example, assuming the total value of valid votes polled by all candidates is 1,00,001.

The quota required for getting elected is:

1,00,001

———– + 1 = 50,000.50 + 1 (Ignore.50)

     2

Quota = 50,000+1 = 50,001.

Since the voting here is by Proportional Representation by means of Single Transferable Vote, hence the ballot paper does not contain any election symbol and just contains the names of the contesting candidates and the order of preference. Each Elector (MP/MLA) will have as many preferences as there are contesting candidates.

However, no ballot paper shall not be treated as invalid if all such preferences are not marked. Which means, an Elector is free to mark just one preference, or both. The marking of preference has to be in numerical – 1 or 2, or depending upon the number of candidates in the poll fray.

Usually, the MPs cast their vote at the polling booth in the Parliament, while the MLAs cast their ballot at their respective state assemblies. An elector may choose to cast his or her vote either at the designated polling booth at the Parliament house complex or at the state legislature, but has to indicate his or her choice of polling booth well in advance.

By convention, the Secretary General of the Lok Sabha and that of the Rajya Sabha are appointed as the Returning Officer, by rotation. For the 2022 Presidential elections, the Secretary General of the Rajya Sabha is the Returning Officer.