Is there a possibility of mid-term polls in Maharashtra?

Will Congress spilt? Will BJP form Govt with the help of NCP?

Mumbai: There are gossips in the corridors of power in Mumbai and national capital Delhi that Maharashtra will go for mid-term polls very soon and that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government led by Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray would fall down. Senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Subramanian Swami through his tweet has given suggestion to form the NDA government in Maharashtra with Shiv Sena, in the interest of nation, if Congress and NCP will withdraw support, the between the line message is clear that something is happening in Maharashtra politics. It may possible that Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) may revoke support to the Thackeray government in near future.

However, there are numerous options and the scene would be different than what Swami has predicted.

The possibilities might be as follows:

1. Congress would withdraw its support.

The source from Delhi claimed, there are differences between Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son – Rahul Gandhi over proceeding support to Uddhav Thackeray led MVA government in Maharashtra. He claimed that Rahul is of the opinion to withdraw backing as Congress does not get the honour in the coalition government. The sources pointed out that the NCP has pulled an additional seat in Rajya Sabha polls held in March this year and again in the election of Member of Legislative Council (MLC) polls held in last month.

“Rahul Gandhi and his close aide Rajeev Satav believes NCP is boosting itself in Maharashtra and that Sena is favouring NCP to dominate Congress. Rahul Gandhi is also upset with CM Thackeray who withheld meeting Congress ministers for three days. These are the major reasons why Rahul Gandhi wishes to withdraw support to the MVA government,” said the senior party leader.

2. NCP’s compulsion to remain in the power

During the previous Devendra Fadnavis led BJP-Shiv Sena coalition government, Fadnavis had severely crunched the financial power centres like District Co-operative (DCC) banks, sugar mills, Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMCs) mostly governed by the NCP. These organisations had played a role of ‘ATM’ for the NCP in past. The last five years in opposition, NCP lost its root at ground level. For NCP, it is their compulsion to stay in power so as to get boost financially and also at the organisational level. So there is less probability that NCP will withdraw support from Thackeray government.

3. Though upset, Congress-NCP ministers want power

Congress got portfolios having nominal significance except for revenue, power and Public Works Department (PWD) and hence the impatient ministers are not happy with CM Thackeray. Even in Nisarga cyclone crisis, CM did not take Revenue minister Balasaheb Thorat into confidence. Minister for Public Works Department (PWD) Ashok Chavan argues that he has been excluded while approving decisions of his department. The same circumstances are in the NCP also. 

The office bearer from Mumbai NCP claimed that NCP supremo Sharad Pawar wished the Chief Minister should bestow responsibility to Jayant Patil to deal with Corona pandemic situation in Mumbai. However, Thackeray dismissed this proposal. So Patil who was guardian minister of Mumbai during 2009-2014 is upset. Foods and Civil Supply Minister Chhagan Bhujbal is also upset as he was kept in dark while taking decisions related to his ministry. 

Even if the circumstance is worse, ministers from both the Congress and NCP are ‘enjoying’ the portfolio and desire to accomplish the tenure of five years of Thackeray government.

4. …then Congress will split

If Rahul Gandhi’s apparent strategy to discontinue the support would be endorsed by party president Sonia Gandhi, there would be a big split in Maharashtra Congress. Two ministers from Vidarbha and one each from Marathwada and Western Maharashtra will lead the rebel in the party. Either they would assemble a separate group and will go along with the ruling party which will form the government. 

5. BJP’s role

BJP is closely monitoring all the political outbreaks in the state. BJP’s first preference is Rajasthan and then Maharashtra. There is a prospect of Shiv Sena-BJP forming coalition government as predicted by Subramanian Swami. The second probability is that the BJP may split Shiv Sena and forge the government with the support of an independent or rebel group from Congress. The third and most probable potential is BJP is likely to keep Shiv Sena aside and may form the coalition government of BJP-NCP and rebellion Congress. 

If the BJP leader would be believed who spoke with TheNews21 in the morning, the day is not far away when the Thackeray government will collapse and BJP would retain in power with all open options to form the government.