Thiruvananthapuram : Apart from the setback suffered by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the outcome of the Jharkhand Assembly polls has brought to sharp focus a new normal in the country’s politics.
Congress is destined to play a junior’s role in most states even as it continues to be the natural leader of the broad anti-BJP axis at the national level. But there lies a rider. Will regional parties that call shots in different states concede majority of the Lok Sabha seats to the Congress when the national elections take places, in all likelihood after long four years?
In its hey-days, under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, Congress had struck deals with regional outfits in a selective manner, based on the formula “you rule the state but leave much of parliament seats to us.” Tamil Nadu was the best example, where the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) led by the late M G Ramachandran wholeheartedly went by this norm.
That, however, is a stale story. Congress of today is not the Congress of those days. The party then used to control most states in the length and breadth of the country. It was widely acknowledged as the natural ruling party at the Centre, wielding power on its own. \
The dynamics of Indian politics have changed significantly in the last few decades. Now, most states have strong regional parties. Coalition government has become the rule rather than the exception at the Centre. Regional forces want to be part of the national government as well. A few seats in the lower house of parliament is essential to ensure that. Being not burdened by ideologies, they can shift to any side, depending upon the post-election scenario.
Take the case of Maharashtra, which has a total of 48 Lok Sabha (LS) seats. Suppose it is going to be a straight fight between the BJP and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in 2024 national polls. Will Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) show the magnanimity of surrendering a majority of seats to the Congress in the larger interest of unseating the BJP in Delhi? Unlikely. Going by the situation in the state, the Congress will have to contend with lesser seats than the two other allies. This means that Congress becoming leaner in one of the country’s largest states, where the party rode strong in the past.
The story won’t be different in Tamil Nadu either. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which is set to take on the AIADMK-BJP axis in alliance with Congress, is sure to stake a claim for a larger share of parliament seats as well. The same will be the case in most other states with strong regional outfits, whether or not the Congress will strike an alliance with them.
Despite the optics its leaders derive from the ongoing stir against the Citizens Amendment Act (CAA), it is a stark reality that Congress’s strength continues to stagnate in a few states including the party-ruled Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. In the south, except Kerala and Karnataka, Congress is dependent on its regional allies. So is the situation in West Bengal and the north-east states, barring Assam. It will be a tall order for Congress to cross a creditable tally of 150 seats in the national polls.
Congress continues to be organizationally weak in large swathes of the country. Despite the rhetoric of the top brass, the party has not initiated any serious action to get itself reorganized across the states. In most cases, it is run in the same old ways by the functionaries appointed by the high command. It is largely ‘reactive’ rather than ‘active’, in the sense that its voice is heard only when the BJP government at the Centre commits some serious blunders.
(Writer is former PTI journalist and political critic)
