IMD cuts monsoon forecast further amid El Nino concerns
India could witness weaker-than-expected monsoon rainfall this year after the India Meteorological Department revised its seasonal outlook downward and warned of intensifying heatwave conditions across multiple regions.
In its latest projection, the weather department stated that southwest monsoon rainfall across the country is expected to remain around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), lower than the earlier estimate issued in April.
The revised outlook has heightened concerns over agriculture, food inflation and water availability in several states dependent on seasonal rainfall.
Weak El Nino conditions likely to strengthen
According to the IMD, weak El Nino conditions are likely to emerge during June and could strengthen during the latter half of the monsoon season.
“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus four per cent, indicating below normal rainfall is most likely,” the IMD said during a media briefing.
Meteorologists believe the changing Pacific Ocean conditions could adversely impact rainfall distribution and intensity over the Indian subcontinent.
Several regions may receive deficient rainfall
The weather department indicated that central India, northwest India and large parts of south peninsular India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the season.
However, some parts of northeast India are expected to witness near-normal precipitation levels.
The updated rainfall assessment has triggered fresh worries for India’s farm sector, especially because a large share of cultivation in the country still depends heavily on rain-fed irrigation systems.
IMD warns of prolonged heatwave conditions
Alongside the weaker monsoon forecast, the IMD also warned that above-normal heatwave days are expected in several states during June.
Regions likely to experience severe heat conditions include parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Isolated pockets of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu could also face intense heat spells.
Weather experts said rising temperatures combined with poor rainfall could worsen pressure on power demand, water supply and crop productivity.
Agriculture sector faces fresh uncertainty
The latest projection carries significant economic implications as nearly half of India’s population remains linked to agriculture and allied activities for livelihood.
A weak monsoon could impact sowing patterns, rural spending and food prices in the coming months. Concerns are also growing over fertiliser availability and energy costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
Experts believe deficient rainfall may particularly affect rain-fed farming regions, which contribute substantially to India’s agricultural production.
Previous weak monsoon seen during 2023 El Nino phase
India last experienced below-normal monsoon rainfall during the 2023 season, another El Nino year, when nationwide rainfall remained below the long-term average.
Climate specialists say the current forecast will be closely monitored over the coming weeks as monsoon progression and oceanic conditions evolve further.
