Bihar Election Results: Exit Polls Prove Highly Accurate, NDA Surge Predicted Correctly

Patna: The official results of the Bihar Assembly elections have reaffirmed the credibility of most exit polls, with a majority of survey agencies accurately capturing the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) clear lead and the overall political mood in the state.

Among the top performers, Kamakhya Analytics stood out with one of the sharpest predictions. Its projection of 167–187 seats for the NDA came remarkably close to the final tally, reinforcing the agency’s growing reputation for high-precision electoral modelling.

Matrize (147–167) and Today’s Chanakya (148–172) also forecasted a stable majority for the NDA, and the final numbers closely aligned with their estimates. Their assessments for the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—Matrize (70–90), Kamakhya Analytics (54–74), and Today’s Chanakya (65–89)—were also broadly validated by the results.

Predictions for smaller parties were equally precise. Matrize’s estimate of five seats for the JSP/JSUP and Axis My India’s 0–2 seat forecast matched the outcome on counting day.

Peoples Pulse, which offered a broader range—133–159 for the NDA and 75–101 for the MGB—remained well within the final trend, while the Bhaskar exit poll (145–160 for NDA and 73–91 for MGB) successfully captured the direction and intensity of the electoral swing.

Several other agencies, including P-Marq, Polstrat and People’s Insight, issued projections with wider margins, yet their overall trends mirrored the final verdict.

Analysts note that this election cycle saw credible agencies place stronger emphasis on sampling models, booth-level coverage, and demographic stratification, which contributed significantly to the accuracy of their forecasts.

With the results now declared, the “fake exit poll” allegations raised by some political quarters stand decisively disproved.
The collective performance of these exit polls confirms that scientifically conducted, data-driven surveys remain a reliable indicator of voter sentiment and electoral outcomes.