@prashanthamine
Mumbai: Although Assembly or Lok Sabha by-election results do not indicate any tectonic political shift and neither do they tend to be anti-establishment, but in a way, they do tend to indicate the prevailing mood of the electorate. Result of the Andheri East assembly constituency on November 6 does indicate one thing and that is that the Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (SHSUBT) faction led by former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray has maintained its hold on its traditional vote bank in the constituency.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appears to be thrilled to bits over the results, terming the low voter turnout and the fact that the None Of The Above (NOTA) option was the second runner-up (12,806 votes) as a negation of the existing politics of corruption. In a statement issued here on Monday, AAP Mumbai president Preeti Sharma Menon argues that it will fill the void in Mumbai’s electoral political scene.
In her reaction Menon stated, “The Andheri by-poll result is a resounding negation of standard politics of hatred, parochialism, power lust and gross ineptitude exemplified by the BJP, Shiv Sena, Congress, NCP and MNS. There is a huge void in Mumbai Politics and the Aam Aadmi Party will rightfully claim that space. Post the Gujarat Elections, the Aam Aadmi Party will be recognised as a national party.”
“The situation in Mumbai is favourable for the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party in Mumbai. Mumbaikars have seen first-hand our Delhi Model of development and have accepted Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal as our leader. Aam Aadmi Party is not just an alternative but the solution. We are confident of Mumbaikars voting in Aam Aadmi Party in the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections.”, remarked Menon further.
One reason for the sudden increase in the NOTA votes is being attributed to the surreptitious campaign on social media urging the voters in Andheri East constituency to exercise the option of NOTA. At the hindsight, the surreptitious campaign appears to have failed to draw the already apathetic voter to the polling booth.
To make matters worse for the BJP, SHSUBT chief Uddhav Thackeray has lashed out at the BJP sarcastically remarking that had they really contested the polls they would have still got the same votes as NOTA did. He did blame the BJP in as many words as to indicate who was behind that surreptitious campaign.
The voter apathy during the voting on November 3 was quite visible with just 31.74% of the electorate casting their ballot. That meant that nearly 68.26% of the voters had turned their backs on the polls. By and large in a lone by-poll, the voter turnout is usually low.
Moreover, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena (BSS) led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde had stayed away from the poll ring, after the former withdrew its candidate from the poll fray. The BJP apparently did so at the behest of pleas to show magnanimity from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). In the end it does appear that everyone was wise enough to keep their cards a closely guarded secret.
But it is no secret that the SHSUBT faction has managed to retain its hold on its traditional vote bank in the assembly constituency. Rutuja Latke managed to poll 66,530 votes as against the 62,773 votes polled by her late husband in the 2019 assembly elections.
Although it cannot be called a sympathy vote or a wave, the fact still remains that Rutuja Latke and the SHSUBT managed to increase its vote tally by a modest 3,757 votes, is in itself an indication that there is no split in the vote bank.
Moreover, the BSS faction of the CM Eknath Shinde too stayed away from the contest. Hence, it cannot be said for certain that there was a split in the vote bank. Sources in the BSS faction claim that prior to the split, it was Shinde who had helped in lending his support to late Ramesh Latke.
In the 2019 Assembly elections in Maharashtra, the BJP and the erstwhile Shiv Sena had jointly contested the elections in a pre-poll alliance. The votes polled by the Sena then and its faction now indicate that its vote bank has remained intact. Secondly, there was no transfer of votes from the BJP to the Sena, as Murji Patel then was contesting as an Independent candidate in 2019 polls.
Another factor that needs to be borne in mind that the SHSUBT faction was contesting the by-poll under a new election symbol of “Flaming Torch” or “Mashal”, as the Election Commission of India (ECI) has frozen its “bow and arrow” symbol following the factional feud that split the party in June earlier this year. It has had little or no time to remind its traditional voters of the change in its poll symbol.
The Andheri East by-election result may not indicate much, but it is an ominous sign for all the key political players as they brace for the crucial BMC elections early next year. The AAP Mumbai unit is already thrilled to bits and sees itself as the prime contender in the BMC polls. Any good performance in the Gujarat assembly elections by the AAP is bound to make it feel upbeat.
Mood swing amongst the electorate or a presence of a wave, or an undercurrent is more visible during a general election, rather than an isolated by-poll, but it still does give enough an indication of things to come. Moreover, the issues vary between assembly and civic elections.
