Will 171-63-54 be the Seat sharing formula between Mahayuti?

X : @vivekbhavsar

Mumbai : A seat-sharing arrangement between the Mahayuti was decided upon during the meeting that took place in Nagpur last week between Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, and Second Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar. According to the reports, the elections are expected to be held in the second week of November. The sources claimed that The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will contest 171 seats, while the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena will run in 63 constituencies, and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will contest 54 seats.

Devendra Fadnavis was in Nagpur on Sunday, and despite not feeling well, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde was flown in for a late-night meeting. Ajit Pawar also joined the discussions. The purpose of their meeting was to finalize the seat-sharing formula for the upcoming state assembly elections.

Before this development, Devendra Fadnavis met Atul Limaye, Sah Sarkaryawah (joint general secretary) of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Their meetings, which took place twice in Nagpur and once in Mumbai, were focused on mobilizing RSS members to bolster the BJP-led Mahayuti’s chances in the elections. This strategy underscores the importance of RSS support in the BJP’s electoral strategy, aiming to secure a strong position for the alliance and ensure a successful outcome in the polls.

It’s noteworthy that while the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) typically maintains a non-interventionist stance in direct political matters, Devendra Fadnavis’s discussions with Atul Limaye seem to have ventured into territory beyond mere support. The conversations reportedly touched on a potential seat-sharing arrangement within the Mahayuti alliance. It indicates that the RSS is playing a more active role in shaping the alliance’s electoral strategy, potentially influencing the distribution of seats to strengthen the BJP-led Mahayuti’s position.

Sources said that after Devendra Fadnavis’s meetings with Atul Limaye of the RSS, he convened a significant discussion in Nagpur on Sunday with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. The outcome of this meeting was a formalized seat-sharing arrangement among the BJP, Shiv Sena, and the NCP.

According to the sources, the agreement reached was that: The NCP led by Ajit Pawar will contest 54 seats, the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde will contest 63 seats and the BJP will contest 171 seats. This division reflects a clear strategy to allocate seats within the Mahayuti alliance, aiming to consolidate their position and optimize their chances in the upcoming elections.

According to a senior Shiv Sena minister who spoke with this reporter, the Shiv Sena is aiming to secure 90 seats in the upcoming elections but is prepared to negotiate down to 70. “Following the split in the Shiv Sena, 50 MLAs supported Eknath Shinde. This historical context necessitates a higher seat allocation compared to the previous distribution,” said the minister. The minister emphasized the Shiv Sena’s strong performance in previous elections, noting a higher strike rate compared to the BJP. This performance is being used to bolster their case for a greater share of seats. “Compared to the BJP, our strike rate was above 48%”, the Shiv Sena minister said, adding that we need to get at least 90 seats in light of our performance. “We will never be adamant on the demands of 90 seats,” he continued, adding that we are aware that we are three allies in a coalition government.

Despite their demands, the Shiv Sena is mindful of the coalition dynamics and acknowledges that they must reach a consensus with their allies. This approach highlights the Shiv Sena’s effort to maximize their share while remaining flexible and cooperative within the Mahayuti alliance framework.

Out of fifteen contested seats in the Lok Sabha, the Shiv Sena won seven, translating to a strike rate of 43%. Whereas, out of twenty-one contested seats, the BJP won nine, giving it a strike rate of 32%. These figures underscore the Shiv Sena’s relatively higher strike rate compared to the BJP in the context of these elections. The Shiv Sena’s stronger performance is being used to justify their demand for a higher number of seats in the upcoming assembly elections.

On the other hand, Ajit Pawar’s NCP is aiming to secure 70 seats in the assembly elections. The BJP is reluctant to allocate a significant number of seats to Ajit Pawar’s NCP. The BJP’s senior leaders are anticipating potential resignations from some legislators within the NCP-AP before the elections. The BJP plans to finalize the exact number of seats that will be left with Ajit Pawar’s faction after accounting for any resignations. They intend to use this number to determine the seat-sharing arrangement with the NCP-AP.

The BJP’s approach reflects a cautious strategy to ensure that the final seat distribution aligns with the alliance’s overall objectives and adjusts for any internal changes within the NCP-AP.

The seat-sharing arrangement within the Mahayuti alliance is also accommodating smaller allied parties. As per the arrangement, Eknath Shindewill accommodate Bachchu Kadu’s Prahar Party from his Shiv Sena quota. The BJP will allocate seats to several allied parties from its share, including, Vinay Kore’s Jan Surajya Party, Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party,  Sadabhau Khot’s Rayat Kranti Sanghtana, Hitendra Thakur’s Bahujan Vikas Aghadi and Mahadev Jankar’s Rashtriya Samaj Party.

This distribution shows a strategic effort to maintain strong relationships with these allied parties by ensuring they have representation in the upcoming elections. The BJP leader claimed that the details of the seat-sharing arrangement, including the allocations to allied parties and any other specifics, will be formally announced in the coming weeks.