Mumbai:
Politics in the state for the last fortnight has remained centered around Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar. However, as the stalemate over government formation is still to be resolved, the Presidents Rule has been imposed in the state.
Then, there is this probability of propping up a government of the MahaShivAghadi alliance of Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress. The NCP will have upper hand in this government as Shiv Sena will never attempt to ignore NCP while driving the government, rather, NCP will have influence over administration and the Sena even if Chief Minister will be of Sena.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is still asserting that there are backdoor meetings being held with the Sena and even they have the alternative to go with the party other than Sena. On the other hand, the NCP will want to go with Sena rather of BJP.
There are a few justifications as to why the NCP will have upper hand in Sena-NCP-Congress grand alliance and NCP will have the better of Sena than the BJP.
1. There are little prospects of Sena president Uddhav Thackeray becoming the Chief Minister of the grand alliance government. Subhash Desai, a close confidante of Thackeray or Eknath Shinde would be alternative Chief Ministerial candidate of the Sena.
2. A BJP in the opposition would make use of every other opportunity to expose Uddhav Thackeray the Chief Minister, and bring him and the Sena in crisis over contentious Hindutva issues during Assembly sessions.
3. Both, Desai and Shinde are politically less suave than the polished NCP stalwarts. The NCP ministers would be definitely keep them under their political control, each and every development is likely to be scripted with by directions of the NCP ministers.
4. If BJP-NCP form the government, Devendra Fadnavis would be CM again. NCP ministers would have to function under administration of Fadnavis as well as of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. There would be the chance of NCP ministers forfeiting their functional autonomy. This will not be a problem with Sena leadership for NCP.
5. In Sena led government, the NCP would revitalize its monetary and organisational roots across the state, hoping to shape it’s own regime in 2024 assembly polls. With BJP, NCP cannot hope to expand and strengthened its support base.
6. Both, Sena and the NCP are basically regional parties and they have constraints to win substantial number of seats. Both these two parties cannot win more than 70 seats individually. But, if they can handle the administration for five years successfully, a sizeable vote bank who will support the Sena-NCP alliance could be developed in next five years like the Sena-BJP alliance has had its own voters share in the state.
