A fresh opinion poll conducted by IANS and survey agency Matrize has predicted that Mamata Banerjee may return to power in West Bengal, though the contest is expected to be tougher for the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) this time.
The survey also predicts strong performances by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and a tight race in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
West Bengal Opinion Poll Prediction
According to the Matrize-IANS survey, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is projected to win 155 to 170 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly.
The BJP is expected to emerge as the main opposition with 100 to 115 seats, indicating a fierce electoral battle.
Seat projections in West Bengal:
- TMC: 155–170
- BJP: 100–115
- All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM): 5–6
- Others: 0–1
- Indian National Congress: 0
The state is expected to witness an intense political clash between Mamata Banerjee’s TMC and the BJP, which has been trying to expand its base in Bengal.
Assam Opinion Poll Prediction
In Assam, the survey predicts a strong return for the BJP government led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
The BJP is projected to win 96 to 98 seats in the 126-member Assembly.
Seat projections in Assam:
- BJP: 96–98
- Congress: 26–28
- All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF): 1–5
- Others: 1–3
The numbers suggest the BJP-led alliance could comfortably retain power in the northeastern state.
Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll Prediction
In Tamil Nadu, the survey predicts a tight contest but indicates a possible edge for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Seat projections:
- NDA: 114–127
- Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK): 104–114
- Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK): 6–12
- Others: 0
The survey indicates that alliances and last-minute campaign strategies could play a crucial role in deciding the final outcome.
Kerala Opinion Poll Prediction
The opinion poll suggests that the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan may secure a third consecutive term in Kerala.
Seat projections:
- LDF: 61–71
- United Democratic Front (UDF): 58–69
- BJP: 2
- Others: 0
The numbers indicate a close contest between the LDF and the Congress-led UDF alliance.
Assembly Election Dates 2026
Meanwhile, the Election Commission of India has officially announced the schedule for Assembly elections in five states and one Union Territory on March 15.
Polling schedule:
- Assam, Kerala and Puducherry: April 9
- Tamil Nadu: April 23
- West Bengal: April 23 and April 29
The counting of votes for all states will take place on May 4, 2026.
Massive Electoral Exercise
According to the Election Commission, around 17.4 crore voters are eligible to participate in the elections across these states.
Voting will be conducted at approximately 2.19 lakh polling stations, with large-scale deployment of election personnel to ensure smooth polling.
With alliances being finalised and campaigns intensifying, the coming weeks are expected to witness a high-voltage political battle across the five states.
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