LJSP damaged JD-U’s electoral prospects, but it also helped win most of the seats it won

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: Though most political and electoral experts argued that the Chirag Paswan led Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJSP) had seriously damaged the electoral prospects of Janata Dal – United (JD-U) in the just concluded Bihar Assembly elections, further analysis has revealed that the LJSP also helped the JD-U win equal number of seats. Our analysis has revealed that while the LJSP damaged electoral prospects of the JD-U in 35 assembly constituencies it also helped JD-U win 35 out of the 43 seats it won in the November polls.

Had it not been for the LJSP’s presence in the 35 seats it won, the JD-U tally could have been reduced to just 8 seats! Votes polled by the LJSP equalled the victory margin of the JD-U. It is for this one reason that the JD-U has not been so overtly been critical of the LJSP.

Actually, it was not just the LJSP alone that was responsible for the poor performance of the JD-U. In all the LJSP and erstwhile Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) alliance partners like Upendra Kushwaha led Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) too damaged JD-U’s electoral prospects in 58 seats. Out of the 58 seats, the LJSP had damaged the electoral prospects of JD-U in 35 of them.

The RLSP on its own damaged the victory chances of the JD-U in 9 seats. The other political parties like Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and others damaged the electoral prospects of the JD-U in another 14 seats.

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But it is not that the LJSP and RLSP have aided and at the same time marred the electoral prospects of the JD-U alone. The two have also aided and marred the electoral prospects of the BJP led NDA and its allies like the Hindustani Awam Morcha – Secular (HAM-S) and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP).

Chief Minister and JD-U chief Nitish Kumar might feel aggrieved as the LJSP and RLSP actually aided the BJP and its NDA allies win 35 seats. While the BJP and its NDA allies lost 21 seats on account of the LJSP and RLSP playing the spoil sport.

Overall, the JD-U and NDA together won 70 assembly seats with a bit of help from the LJSP, RLSP and even BSP in some seats. The JD-U and the BJP led NDA together also lost 79 seats because of the presence of the LJSP, RLSP, MIM among others in the poll fray.

At the end of the day it all proved to be a well-crafted electoral battle that although helped Nitish Kumar retain his Chief Ministership for a record seventh time, it left the JD-U badly battered. The mathematical calculations left the Tejashwi Yadav led RJD fell short of the finishing line, thanks largely due its ally the Congress and MIM playing the spoil sport.