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Thiruvananthapuram: Though it is too risky to guess which of the two main fronts in Kerala–the ruling CPI(M)-controlled LDF and the Congress-led UDF—will celebrate victory on May 2, the outcome of the assembly polls is certain to do irreparable damage to the loser and set the state on a new political trajectory, with the BJP poised to play a greater role in the long-run.
Unlike most previous contests in the state’s bipolar polity, the elections this time saw the central figures of the rival alliances staking too much in the battle. Even if the tally between the winner and loser is narrow, the upheaval the defeat triggers will be too hard to bear for the main palyers of the losing side.
This is for the first time in Kerala that the CPI(M) had mounted an entirely leader- centric campaign, turning the election into a referendum for a fresh mandate under chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan. With the party in his firm grip, the 75-year-old Marxist stalwart had called all the shots in the LDF right from the start. The overarching role of the ‘captain’ had pushed all others in the party and the coalition to mere camp-followers. A victory for the LDF, thereby resetting the state’s record of oscillating between the two fronts every five year, will skyrocket Vijayan to the apogee of his political glory. Equally tragic would be a defeat, sliding him down to ignominy and insignificance.
If Vijayan fails to deliver, smouldering factionalism in the CPI (M) will flare up. Many party functionaries across the organizational spectrum are unhappy about the overbearing manner in which he ran the party and the government in the last five years. Some enfeebled noises have already come out. Those who failed to get ticket included four prominent ministers. There have been murmurings in party strongholds like Alappuzha indicating that factional under-currents had marred the prospects of candidates. In the event of a shcokc defeat, the desperados would gang up and assail their tormentor, casing entire responsibility for the poor showing at the door steps of the supreme comrade.
The post-poll turbulence will be no different in UDF either. A defeat will jolt the party with the ugly and uncontrolled egoism of leaders spilling out in the open, a situation that would be difficult to even the central leadership to contain. Such a scenario will also see the complete sidelining of key players of the party including former chief minister Oommen Chandy, opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala and KPCC president Mullappally Ramachandran.
Also Read: LDF maintains slender edge in Kerala, under-currents strong as run-up ends
Suppose the UDF wins, overcoming the grim challenge posed by the LDF, there would be a scramble for spoils of power. The leadership question in the Congress is still open. The party had gone to the polls without projecting any particular leader as its chief minister face. The state as well as the central leadership of the Congress will find it hard to assuage and accommodate the claims of many elected MLAs for cabinet berths. The UDF being a lose conglomeration of disparate social and community interests, it will be a tough job for the Congress bigwigs to make for the demands of diverse groups.
Failure to gain power in the sole southern state where the party matters will also deal a blow to the Congress top brass, especially to Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra. The Gandhi siblings had extensively campaigned across the state for the UDF, imparting a momentum to the coalition in the final lap of the run-up.
Fast emerging as the third political pillar in the state, it will be win-win situation for the BJP, regardless of the prospects of the two traditional coalitions. The BJP strategists assert that the party would gain up to half-a-dozen seats this time, against a single seat it held in the previous assembly. They even see a possibility of the polls throwing up a hung house, a scenario that would cast the BJP in a crucial role.
Whatever be its electoral prospects, the BJP will find itself in a position to benefit from the political turmoil triggered by the elections. The party is sure to attract splinter political groups disgruntled or frustrated with the two fronts. But more than that the unfolding political context will provide ample opportunities for the party to broaden and deepen its support across the social spectrum once the electoral outcome damages the credibility of the loser. But it is crucial for the party to have an able, credible and sagacious leadership in the state to take advantage of the situation.
