If at all Sena needs Aditya Thackeray in Mumbai, it is now as it seeks to revive its electoral fortunes

Mumbai: If at all the Shiv Sena needs its Yuva Sena president Aditya Thackeray and his charisma it is now in the October 21 assembly elections. It needs him more than anybody else to revive its sagging electoral fortunes. Out of the 14 assembly seats the Sena had won in the 2014 assembly elections, the Sena is in the danger of losing 10 of those seats. The BJP which had won 15 seats, faces the prospects of losing at least 3 of those seats. The Congress is in the danger of losing all its five seats it had won in the 2014 polls.

The negative difference in the comparative victory margins of 2009 and 2014 reveals a grim picture not just for the Sena, the Congress, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) and Samajwadi Party. In the 2014 assembly elections the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had lost all the 3 seats it had won in the 2009 elections. So it is difficult to say whether the partys electoral fortunes will be revived in Mumbai or not. Moreover, its Mumbai unit president Sachin Ahir had quit the party on the eve of the elections and joined the Sena instead.

Prominent amongst those who are in danger of losing their assembly seats include – BJPs minister of state Vidya Thakur (Goregaon), Arif (Naseem) Mohammad Khan (Congress – Chandivali), Abu Asim Azmi (Samajwadi Party – Mankhurd-Shivajinagar), Varsha Gaikwad (Congress – Dharavi-SC), Kalidas Kolambkar (ex-Congress, now in BJP – Wadala), Sada Sarvankar (Sena – Mahim), Waris Pathan (MIM – Bhyculla), Amin Patel (Congress – Mumbadevi).

Trupti Prakash Sawant (Sena – Bandra East), Sanjay Potnis (Sena – Kalina), Ashok Patil (Sena – Bhandup West), Ameet Satam (BJP – Andheri West), Ramesh Latke (Sena – Andheri East), Tukaratm Kate (Sena – Anushaktinagar), Prakash Phaterpekar (Sena – Chembur) and Mangesh Kudalkar (Sena – Kurla-SC).

As far as areas of influence or support base is concerned, the BJP, Sena, NCP and the Congress are more strong in the 26 assembly segments of Mumbai Suburban district, than in the 10 assembly segments of Mumbai City district. The Congress appears to have support base in both the district’s of Mumbai.

Of the 15 assembly seats that the BJP had won in the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP is in likely danger of losing 3 seat’s – Goregaon, Andheri West and Sion-Koliwada. It will have to sweat it out to retain these 3 seat’s now. The rest of the 12 seat’s – Borivali, Dahisar, Mulund, Kandivali East, Charkop, Versova, Vile Parle, Ghatkopar West, Ghatkopar East, Bandra West, Malbar Hill and Colaba.

Out of the 14 seat’s that the Sena won in the 2014 elections, the Sena is in likely danger of losing 10 seat’s that include – Bhandup West, Vikhroli, Andheri East, Anushakti Nagar, Chembur, Kurla (SC), Kalina, Bandra East, Mahim and Magathane. Barring Bhandup West seat, the Sena will have to really work hard to retain the other 9 seat’s. Of the 14 seats only 4 seat’s – Jogeshwari East, Dindoshi, Worli and Shivdi appear to be safe seat’s for the Sena. It is little wonder then that Yuva Sena chief Aditya Thackeray has chosen the Worli seat which was won by Sunil Shinde in the 2014 elections.

The signs for the Congress which begins its poll campaign to retain the 5 seat’s it had won in the 2014 polls are not good either. A miffed former MRCC president Sanjay Nirupam has already announced he will not campaign for the party as the only candidature recommended by the party has been rejected by the party. The Congress is most likely to lose all the 5 seats of – Malad West, Chandivali, Dharavi (SC), Wadala and Mumbadevi. Only 1 seat of Dharavi (SC) can be considered as the safe seat by the Congress. Whereas, it will have to really work hard to retain – Malad West, Chandivali, Wadala and Mumbadevi seats. Of the 5 seats, its sitting MLA Kalidas Kolambkar recently quit the party and joined the BJP.

Although, former Congress, former NCP legislator Bashir Moosa Patel has joined the MIM camp and is likely to contest from Mumbadevi, the MIM will find it difficult to retain its lone seat of Bhyculla held by Adv. Waris Pathan. Samajwadi Party sitting MLA, Abu Asim Azmi too is likely to find it difficult to retain the Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar seat he had won in the 2014 elections.