New Delhi: As voting for the Delhi Assembly Election 2025 continues across 70 constituencies, several poll agencies and news channels are set to release exit poll predictions later today. The official results will be declared on February 8, but exit polls will offer an early indication of possible electoral trends.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, has dominated the last two assembly elections, securing landslide victories in both 2015 and 2020. However, questions remain over how accurate exit polls have been in the past.
Were Delhi Exit Polls in 2015 and 2020 Accurate?
In 2015, AAP won 67 out of 70 seats, leaving Congress with zero and BJP with just three seats. While most exit polls predicted an AAP victory, none anticipated the party securing over 60 seats.
- India TV-C Voter: 35-43 (AAP), 25-33 (BJP)
- India Today-Cicero: 38-46 (AAP), 19-27 (BJP)
- ABP-Nielsen: 43 (AAP), 26 (BJP)
- Today’s Chanakya: 48 (AAP), 22 (BJP)
- Axis: 53 (AAP), 17 (BJP)
- News Nation: 41-45 (AAP), 23-27 (BJP)
In 2020, AAP secured 62 seats, while BJP improved its tally to 8 seats. Exit polls were closer to the actual results, with most predicting an AAP landslide:
- Jan Ki Baat: 55 (AAP), 15 (BJP)
- India Today-Axis My India: 59-68 (AAP), 2-11 (BJP)
- Times Now: 47 (AAP), 23 (BJP)
- NewsX-Neta: 55 (AAP), 14 (BJP)
- India News-Nation: 55 (AAP), 14 (BJP)
- ABP News-CVoter: 51-65 (AAP), 3-17 (BJP)
Election Commission’s Ban on Exit Polls
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has prohibited the conduct, publication, or dissemination of exit polls from 7:00 AM to 6:30 PM on February 5, 2025, under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
The final exit poll predictions will be revealed once the embargo lifts, providing insights into voter sentiment. However, history suggests that while exit polls often indicate broad trends, they sometimes fail to capture the full extent of a party’s performance.
With voting underway, all eyes are now on the Delhi Assembly Election 2025 results, set to be declared on February 8.
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