If China occupies this archipelago, Beijing can block all western maritime intervention from the Pacific’s remaining area to the South China Sea, thereby isolating Taiwan. However, 2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC, thus Beijing needs to ensure that its military operations are risk-free so as not to lose face, as it did with India
Kunal Chonkar
@Kunal_Chonkar
New Delhi: By employing a variety of strategies, including the weaponization of its new Coast Guard law, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is broadening its operations to blockade the Pratas Archipelago to mount economic and military pressure on Taiwan. The development comes close on the heels of the fourth session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, wherein the Communist Party of China (CPC) voiced to “resolutely constrain” the Taiwan independence process and “advance” efforts of the reunification of the motherland.
On March 3, a Hong Kong-based newspaper reported that Taiwan was planning to test-fire missiles, and carry out a number of other military exercises in March to strengthen its defense capacity, in the context of China conducting month-long exercises in the East Sea. Earlier in the week, a Beijing-based state-controlled newspaper published an article stating that the Taiwanese Coast Guard, on March 1 conducted live-fire drills and mid-sea exercises in the Pratas Archipelago, located north of South China Sea.
Strategic Outpost
The Pratas Archipelago, under Taiwan’s jurisdiction, is strategically cardinal, due to its location on the southern edge of a protective perimeter that Taipei has built to prevent PRC military forces from afar in the event of an outbreak of a conflict. In contrast, to Beijing, Pratas is a springboard, which can be utilized for landing on Taiwan’s southern coastline and inland regions. Furthermore, for Beijing, Pratas is also an area where activities between Taiwan and Hong Kong can be tracked, traced, and blocked.
Additionally, geo-positioning of Pratas also avails a big advantage to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The Pratas Archipelago is located at the gateway to the Bashi Channel, part of the PLAN’s maritime passage toward the West Pacific, or into the South China Sea and then the South Pacific.
Thus, due to the above factors, Pratas has become a hot spot when tension arises between the two shores of the Taiwan Strait. Since the mid-2020, Beijing has initiated several military exercises, drills, and combat operations around this archipelago. Recently, the PRC repeatedly dispatched combat aircraft to encroach the airspace around this archipelago. Several international experts and maritime scholars have assessed that the Pratas Archipelago has all the potential risks of becoming the point of conflict outbreak. The intensified military manoeuvring by the PRC in the South China Sea could well witness a maritime muscling match or even a full-blown military conflict.
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“Attacking Pratas is easy for the PLAN. The recent spree of Chinese military activities in and around that archipelago suggests that Beijing is in a hurry to drop anchor in that area, due to the ever-increasing maritime pressure reeled by US-led naval exercises, featuring various nations.” a former high-ranking retired Indian naval officer told TheNews21.
He added that after an attack or attempt to seize Pratas, Beijing would issue a justification calling it an “internal affair” since Taipei controls the archipelago.
Weaponizing Maritime Law
In bids to strengthen its position and administrative control over much of the disputed territory in the South China Sea at minimal material or diplomatic cost, the PLAN has started fast-tracking gray zone operations around the Pratas Archipelago. After passing the controversial Coast Guard law on 22 January, the PLAN has now directed state-owned enterprises to hasten operations to “blockade” Pratas and muscle economic and military pressure on Taipei.
Armed with the new Coast Guard law — availing the right to use weapons against foreign vessels that it considers are violating or breaching ‘China’s waters’ — the PLAN will now deploy coast guard vessels to prevent Taiwanese ships from transporting goods to neighbouring islands and Pratas. Beijing’s law enforcement vessels under the pretext of checking the origin and nature of goods would conduct a search operation on any ship. This approach would not only put economic pressure on Taiwan but also at the same time, help Beijing establish its administrative control over the maritime region.
In addition to these activities, the PLAN would coordinate with the Chinese militia to put pressure on Taiwanese fishing boats and ships operating in the waters. In terms of military activities, Beijing could deploy its combat jets to intercept Taiwanese civilian and military aircraft, forcing them out of the Pratas’ airspace. By means of such a stratagem, Beijing could gradually blockade Pratas. In addition, China could continue to step up its amphibious assault and air assault drills to further increase its military pressure to intimidate Taipei leadership.
Western Pressure
On February 9, the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) and the USS Nimitz (CVN 68) carrier strike groups conducted joint exercises in the South China Sea.
On February 11, on the eve of the 2021 Lunar New Year, the White House website released a readout of the phone call between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping that took place a day earlier.
This was the first time the top leaders of the two countries spoke directly since Biden took over the Oval Office. It was reported that during the call President Biden “affirmed his priorities of protecting the American people’s security, prosperity, health, and way of life, and preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific.” This statement indicated that Washington wanted to press that it would continue to pursue the “Indo-Pacific” policy.
The new administration wants to create a picture of assertion to countries in the region that Washington will not abandon the South China Sea, especially its commitment in dealing against China’s violations of international maritime law and aggression. It also wanted to affirm that it will continue to maintain the US naval presence in the South China Sea as it has over the years.
“The deployment of those two carrier strike groups in the region to conduct exercises on that day was a strong signal to Beijing. With this deployment Biden has told Xi that he will not accept China’s expansionist claims in these waters or in the region in general,” the officer explained.
Covert Ops
In May 2020, the Japanese media cited some sources saying that China might soon attack the Pratas Archipelago. In July 2020, the US dispatched two carrier strike groups to the South China Sea to conduct exercises.
The year 2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC, so Beijing needs to mark it with a victory. The uninhabited Pratas Archipelago only has military facilities and an airstrip. If China occupies this archipelago, Beijing can block all western maritime intervention from the Pacific’s remaining area to the South China Sea. However, Beijing also needs to ensure that its military operations are risk-free so as not to lose face, as it did with India in the northern border region.
