With back to back defeats in Maharashtra and soon thereafter in Jharkhand, it does seem as if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is imploding. The heady intoxication of power and living in its own fool’s paradise has always proved to be its Achilles Heels. Be it in 2004 Lok Sabha elections, or the recent 2019 Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections, the party has displayed its suicidal streak all over again of losing a battle it had almost won. It is not just the alienation from the electorate, but more importantly its alienation from its own cadres which has made its downfall all the more spectacular.
From being in power in 19 state’s (some in alliance) covering a Pan-India footprint of about 70 percent in 2018, the BJP has come down to being in power in 11 states and in alliance government in five more state’s. The BJP’s footprint has shrunk to just 35 percent within a span of just 1 year. The wheels of its well-oiled poll machine seem to be coming off just as it needed the momentum to carry through some of the most turbulent domestic, economic and external relations in recent years.
The most stinging defeats in 2019 have been those in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. It albeit managed to retain power through splitting its opponents in Goa and Karnataka. But it was unable to win over an obstinate former ally the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Why we say it’s a defeat in Maharashtra, because, despite being the single largest party, it is sitting in the opposition benches, rather than sitting in the treasury benches sharing power – preferably with the Sena.
In Maharashtra at least, this Columnist had seen it coming in 2017 itself. The results both in Maharashtra and Jharkhand bear a near identical stamp of the government detaching itself from the party, taking its core electorate for granted, the party detaching itself from its own cadres, over reliance on leaders imported from even its own political opponents and misjudging the intentions of its allies like the Sena in Maharashtra.
Besides this, another major reason for its own undoing was the leadership hand-picking chief minister’s, who either proved too over-confident (in Maharashtra and Rajasthan) or too docile (in Jharkhand). In Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh it was more of the state party leadership undermining its own government. Another common thread in all these defeats was the party cadres and its leader’s over-dependence on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah to bail them out anyhow as usual.
Another reason for the party failing badly in these key state’s was its own local leadership which presented a rosy picture to it, which in reality was farther from thre truth. In Maharashtra, despite the warning signals to detach from the Sena, the state leadership preferred to go along with the Sena which eventually ditched it. Moreover, the state leadership chose to undermine its own challengers from within and assiduously wooed a partner who was always going to double-cross it in the end.
In Jharkhand the situation was no less different than in Maharashtra. Raghubar Das was perceived to be docile, pusher of sorts. Like in Maharashtra, in Jharkhand too the party took its core tribal voters in 20 odd seat’s for granted. A spurned cadre which did not get any share in the power pie, stayed away from taking its own governments schemes to the masses.
Das was simply no match to the guile of the JMM and the Congress as he could not counter their campaign on Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), an issue which was anyways beyond his grasp. In Maharashtra, the party harped on Article 370, at a time when the farmers were hit hard with floods and drought conditions in some parts of the state, and an economy in a tail spin. In both the state’s, the state leadership is now being held guilty of presenting a false impression to the central leadership.
The ‘Mann Ki Baat’ is apparently losing traction amongst the masses, as the cadres and state leaders are more interested in doing their own ‘Mann Ki Baat’. It is now after facing the flak from its critics and unable to counter the opposition campaign against the CAA, the party has realized the need for an “Outreach Program”. It has now deputed its senior leaders to engage with the masses and brief them about what CAA exactly is. Had it been more alert, proactive and ears to the ground things could have been lot different.
Like Nero played the fiddle as Rome burnt, a BJP leadership detached from the reality appears to be playing its own fiddle of catchy slogans oblivious to the implosion going around it from within.
