Curtains for the Three Penny Opera?

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: From the beginning it was at the back of everybody’s mind as to how long will this ‘three legged race’ called the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) last. It takes two to do a Tango, no one has ever attempted a ‘three legged race’ be it on the sports field or on the political arena. If the year 2020 gone by was bad, the new year 2021 has not exactly begun well for the Shiv Sena led MVA government in Maharashtra.

Congress, its third junior alliance partner is angry at what it feels unsolicited advice from the Shiv Sena over the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairpersons post, or, the much recent move to rename Aurangabad city in Marathwada region as ‘Sambhajinagar’. Congress apparently is feeling short-changed in this ‘Three Penny Opera’ of sorts that is currently on show on Maharashtra’s political stage.

Renaming controversy rings alarm bells for the Congress as it strikes at the roots of its minority vote bank, of whatever that is left of it. For the Sena this controversy was there when it was in power in 1995-99 and when it shared power with the BJP in 2014-19. The electoral performance of All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM / MIM) in Maharashtra and Bihar has set the cat amongst the pigeons.

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Governance and waste management have always been an issue in Aurangabad. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the MIM has unseated the Sena from its saffron perch in Aurangabad and could pose problems for even the MVA constituents in other civic body elections. It is debatable whether the controversy will serve any purpose other than damaging vote banks of some.

Apparently it does appear that the Congress feels that it’s national party status and in the UPA is being challenged. It was little wonder then that senior Congress minister and former chief minister Ashok Chavan had to tersely remind the Sena that it was yet to become part of the UPA. But loyal foot-soldiers like Mohammed Arif Naseem Khan and recently crowned Mumbai Regional Congress Committee (MRCC) chief Ashok @ Bhai Jagtap have not taken it kindly.

In this Three Penny Opera it is the NCP which is having the cherry and eating it too. It has nothing to lose at least in Mumbai and everything else in rest of Maharashtra. For the NCP, the Sena poses a stronger electoral challenge in Western Maharashtra, than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

For the Sena the immediate headache is the early 2022 elections to 20 major Municipal Corporation’s that include Mumbai and Thane. An MVA alliance for these civic polls will mean sharing the spoils with its new found untested allies which will mean too much for the Sena, especially when it comes to Mumbai and Thane municipal corporations.

Congress on the other hand is not just fighting to stay relevant in Mumbai and rest of Maharashtra, it has to also weigh in the costs of its alliance with the ideologically opposite Sena especially when it is contesting elections outside of Maharashtra. This year it has to face assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry. Already its alliance with the Sena did affect its poll chances in Bihar assembly elections last year.

Before the Congress split in 1999, the Congress was always a monolith block, and always within striking distance of power. It retained power with little bit help from a generous block of Independent MLAs. The presence of the NCP hurts in the eye for some as for more than two decades Congress has seldom occupied the driver’s seat on its own and has had to swallow self-pride in the quest for power.

Hence, the Pawar-UPA is a dual edged controversy which once again raises debate of reunification of its Congress offshoots to which most are uncomfortable with and  also blunts their bargaining power. Right now the Congress is feeling stifled, in a corner and wants to get out of a loss making deal.

Pulling out of the loss making deal may be an option. That threat has always been lurking in the background for the MVA ever since it was cobbled up. The fractured mandate of 2019 came with seeds of instability sown in it. It is not a mouth-watering proposition for the BJP as reviving its three-day still-born government might well prove counterproductive and label it as power hungry. All the ingredients and developments seem to point towards early Assembly elections, sooner or later.