Central Hall: BJP could be given run for the money in Civic polls, if Congress & NCP, and both the Shiv Sena factions, and MNS were to merge

It’s the MNS that desperately needs to patch-up with SS-UBT, though now both appear to be sailing in the same boat. Shiv Sena old guard’s dream of a grand unified monolith party appears to be a pipedream as of now.

X: @prashanthamine

Mumbai: When asked for his comments upon the much hyped probable merger/alliance between the Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena UBT (SS-UBT) faction and his estranged cousin Raj Thackeray led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Nationalist Congress Party SP faction (NCP-SP) faction patriarch Sharad Pawar cryptically summed it up by saying “they draw-in the crowds at the rallies, but that does not translate into votes.”

The impending civic elections to 27 Municipal Corporation’s across the state are being dubbed as the Mini-Vidhan Sabha elections. Elections to some of these Municipal Corporations – Brihan Mumbai (March 7, 2022), Navi Mumbai (May 7, 2020) or Dhule (December 30, 2023) have been long overdue, delayed thanks to protracted legal disputes. The delay in some cases is almost 5 years!

With the Supreme Court clearing the decks for the State Election Commission of Maharashtra (SECM) to hold elections to the much coveted Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), informal talks have begun between the SS-UBT and the MNS over possible merger/alliance.

More than the SS-UBT it is the MNS that desperately needs to patch-up with SS-UBT. Shiv Sena old guard, former Lok Sabha MP Gajanan Kirtikar’s dream of a grand unified monolith Shiv Sena party appears to be a pipedream as of now. The question is who will bell the cat, and will fences be mended that easily. Family relations aside, the trigger points for their political fallout remain unaddressed.

A merger of all the Shiv Sena factions appears to be a tall order as of now. All the Sena factions follow the same organizational structure and a merger would mean accommodating office bearers, elected representatives and leaders across all the verticals of the organizational structure.

In such a scenario a pre-poll alliance or a friendly contest would be some of the options that could be explored. Even in such a scenario, giving up one’s claim on a carefully cultivated/nurtured constituency just to accommodate your one-time rival now turned friend, will be a bitter pill to swallow.

Also Read: Central Hall: Mumbai that accounts for largest share in India’s growth story, global trade deserves better infrastructure

Analyzing the electoral performance of the five major political parties in the 27 Municipal Corporations that is available with the SECM, reveals that while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has improved on its electoral performance year on year. On the other hand, the Congress, the NCP and the undivided Shiv Sena have had fluctuations in their vote share and seats won that were affected by the party splits.

Congress split on June 10, 1999 with Sharad Pawar later forming the NCP, Raj Thackeray split from the then undivided Shiv Sena on November 27, 2005. He formed the MNS on March 9, 2006. These party splits in the Congress and the Shiv Sena happened in 1999 and 2006. After that Eknath Shinde further split the Shiv Sena on June 21, 2022 and Ajit Pawar split the NCP on June 30, 2023.

It is pertinent to note here that there have been no elections to some of the Municipal Corporation’s since 2020, 2022 and 2023, and in some cases since 2020. The civic elections in some cases were held in 2015, 2017 and 2018.

Maharashtra has in 2019 and 2024 witnessed Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. The more recent 2024 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections have given a fair indication of who amongst the factions of the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena enjoys the popular mandate.

But to judge the popular mandate for Municipal Corporation elections based on the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections would be foolhardy.

Civic elections are fought more on local issues affecting the common people of that city. Although attempts are made by state level political parties to rake up issues like Marathi versus non-Marathi, jobs for the sons-of-the-soil, but rarely on the infrastructure development and state of the civic amenities.

The analysis of the electoral performance of the five major political parties in the 27 Municipal Corporations from 1995 to 2018 reveals an interesting scenario, especially what if the Congress and the Shiv Sena were monolith parties, and had the NCP and MNS merged into them respectively.

Despite the NCP breaking away in 1999, the Congress has by and large held on to its vote share and the seats it has won in election cycle years of 1995-2003, 2004-09, 2009-13 and 2014-18. That indicates that its vote share and number of seats won have ebbed and flowed when it was in power from 1999 to 2014 in Maharashtra.

The Congress won 503 seats in 1995-2003 with a total vote share of 398.52%, won 473 seats in 2004-09 with a total vote share of 426.88%, won 614 seats in 2009-13 with a total vote share of 543.03%, and won 418 seats in 2014-18 with a total vote share of 444.54%. Overall, the Congress in the last 30 years has won 2,008 seats with an overall vote share of 1,812.97%.

The NCP won 367 seats in 1995-2003 with a total vote share of 342.37%, won 396 seats in 2004-09 with a total vote share of 387.19%, won 554 seats in 2009-13 with a total vote share of 492.52%, and won 294 seats in 2014-18 with a total vote share of 317.38%. Overall, the NCP in the last 30 years has won 1,611 seats with an overall vote share of 1,539.46%.

The Shiv Sena won 357 seats in 1995-2003 with a total vote share of 256.14%, won 373 seats in 2004-09 with a total vote share of 280.25%, won 413 seats in 2009-13 with a total vote share of 337.11%, and won 489 seats in 2014-18 with a total vote share of 473.96%. Overall, the Shiv Sena in the last 30 years has won 1,926 seats with an overall vote share of 1347.46%.

The MNS won 45 seats in 2004-09 with a total vote share of 67.74%, won 162 seats in 2009-13 with a total vote share of 205.21%, and won 26 seats in 2014-18 with a total vote share of 51.09%. Overall, the MNS in the last 20 years (2005-2025) has won just 233 seats with an overall vote share of 324.04%.

The BJP won 333 seats in 1995-2003 with a total vote share of 266.99%, won 267 seats in 2004-09 with a total vote share of 223.93%, won 320 seats in 2009-13 with a total vote share of 265.90%, and won 1099 seats in 2014-18 with a total vote share of 766.40%. Overall, the BJP in the last 30 years has won 2,019 seats with an overall vote share of 1,523.22%. In the last 30 years, the electoral performance of the BJP has seen a steady rise.

If one were to hypothetically consider a monolith Congress with no split in the last 30 years, adding up the vote share percentage and seats the NCP has won correspondingly in the last 30 years, a unified Congress would have out-performed both the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena.

Hypothetically an undivided Congress would have won 957 seats in 1995-2003 with a total vote share of 770.56%, won 875 seats in 2004-09 with a total vote share of 827.38%, won 1,176 seats in 2009-13 with a total vote share of 1,064.83%, and won 826 seats in 2014-18 with a total vote share of 873.14%. Overall, the Congress in the last 30 years would have won 2,664 seats with an overall vote share of 3,535.91%.

If one were to hypothetically consider a monolith Shiv Sena with no split in the last 30 years, adding up the vote share percentage and seats the MNS has won correspondingly in the last 30 years, a unified Shiv Sena would have gained more in vote share compared to the BJP, but would have still fallen short of overall seats won.

A unified Shiv Sena would have garnered an overall vote share of 2,365.93%, but would have managed to win just 1,632 seats in the last 30 years. Although the BJP would have secured a vote share of 1,523.22%, it would have still won 2,019 seats, 387 seats more than the Shiv Sena.

Hypothetically, an undivided Shiv Sena would have won 357 seats in 1995-2003 with a total vote share of 256.14%, won 662 seats in 2004-09 with a total vote share of 537.79%, won 751 seats in 2009-13 with a total vote share of 652.37%, and won 894 seats in 2014-18 with a total vote share of 919.63%. Overall, the Shiv Sena in the last 30 years would have won 1,632 seats with an overall vote share of 2,365.93%.

If one were to consider the above data, one thing is clear, the Congress has been able to somewhat maintain steady electoral performance in terms of seats won and vote share percentage in the last 30 years. Even though the NCP broke away from it in 1999.

For both the MNS and the NCP, the only glory days when it came to electoral performance was in the 2009-2013 civic election cycle when both won with handsome margins. The MNS dented the electoral performance of the BJP and Shiv Sena, while the NCP managed to dent the electoral performance of the Congress. Since then neither the MNS nor the NCP-SP faction have been able to repeat their 2009-2013 electoral performance.

The electoral performance of the Shiv Sena on the other hand has been significantly dented by the MNS splitting away from it in 2005. The MNS which was on an electoral high in 2009 managed to come to power in Nashik Municipal Corporation. In the 2017 BMC elections, with barely two seats separating the Shiv Sena and the BJP, the defection of 6 out of the 7 MNS corporator’s quite mysteriously defecting to the Shiv Sena to shore-up its numbers and help it to keep the BJP away from wresting power in the prestigious civic body in the country.

All the above data has been of civic polls which have been held almost two to five years ago. The Shiv Sena has suffered yet another split in 2022 and the NCP in 2023. Both the Uddhav Thackeray led SS-UBT and Sharad Pawar led NCP-SP have suffered electoral reverses in the 2024 Assembly elections.

The 2024 Assembly elections have given an indication of who holds how much of a sway on the electorate. Much of the outcome of the ensuing mini-Assembly elections to the 27 Municipal Corporation’s will depend upon how the Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena faction and the Ajit Pawar led NCP-AP faction perform electorally.

To whom this split of the Shiv Sena, the NCP and their vote banks will help is a matter of conjecture. The SS-UBT, MNS and NCP-SP all three desperately need a survival strategy if they are to stay relevant in the current fragmented politics in Maharashtra.