BMC Results: Shinde Becomes BJP’s Political Headache

X: @vivekbhavsar

Mumbai: BJP is celebrating the BMC results as a big victory, but if you look beyond the noise, the truth is far less glamorous. The party has moved from 82 seats in 2017 to 89 now — a gain of just seven seats. For a party ruling both Delhi and Maharashtra, after throwing its entire machinery into the election, this is nothing extraordinary. This is not a wave. This is not a mandate. BJP has got the Mayor’s post purely because of numbers, not because Mumbai voted overwhelmingly in its favour. Arithmetic saved BJP, not public mood.

If anything, these numbers expose BJP’s limits in Mumbai. Despite full control of the state government, despite money power, media support and organisational muscle, the party could not produce a decisive breakthrough. A six-seat jump over nine years is hardly something to boast about. The celebration looks louder than the achievement itself.

The real story is the Shiv Sena split — and it exposes BJP’s dependence. Shinde’s group has won 29 seats, while Uddhav Thackeray’s faction has secured 65. Together, they total 94 seats. In 2017, a united Shiv Sena had 84 seats. That means the Sena base has actually grown. The split has not weakened Sena — it has only divided it. The so-called collapse narrative pushed by BJP stands completely demolished by these numbers.

Uddhav Thackeray still commands the larger support base in Mumbai. His party remains the main opposition force inside the BMC. Shinde, on the other hand, has proved he is not just a breakaway leader surviving on BJP’s crutches. He has carved out his own political space. BJP may be celebrating, but the reality is it cannot ignore either Sena faction. Both matter. Both hold influence. That itself shows BJP’s vulnerability.

Congress continues its steady slide. From 31 seats to 23, the decline is clear. The party is slowly drifting into irrelevance in Mumbai politics. It no longer sets the narrative. It no longer shapes power equations. It is now just another player, not a decisive one.

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NCP has collapsed from nine seats to three. MNS has slipped from seven to six. Both parties are now on the margins, no longer serious power players. They exist, but they do not influence outcomes. Their presence is symbolic, not strategic.

The biggest winner of this election is not BJP. It is Eknath Shinde.

Shinde now holds leverage in two crucial arenas.

First, in Mumbai (BMC). 

BJP does not have a clean majority on its own. It needs Shinde’s support to run the corporation smoothly. That means every key decision — budgets, contracts, projects, committee formations — will involve negotiation, not command. BJP cannot push through decisions unilaterally anymore. Governance in Mumbai will now depend on how Shinde plays his cards.

Second, in the state government.

If BJP tries to sideline or weaken Shinde in the cabinet or power-sharing arrangement, he has a ready weapon: BMC. He can retaliate politically by slowing decisions, shifting alliances and creating governance pressure in Mumbai. BJP knows this very well. That is why Shinde is no longer a junior partner. He has become a pressure point BJP must manage carefully.

So instead of being BJP’s obedient ally, Shinde has turned into a strategic headache.

He can bargain harder.

He can demand more influence.

He can play both sides when required.

That’s why this result is uncomfortable for BJP.

They’ve won the Mayor’s chair — but lost the comfort of control.

Shinde has turned himself from a side player into a bargaining force. He now decides terms. He negotiates from a position of strength. This result has made him politically dangerous — not to the opposition, but to his own ally.

So the power equation is clear. BJP is the largest party, but it cannot function alone. Uddhav has numbers, but no control. Shinde has fewer seats, but maximum leverage. That makes him the real kingmaker.

In short, BJP celebrated the numbers.

Shinde walked away with the real power.

Forget who won. Forget who lost.

This election was never about victory.

It was about who controls the game.

And that man is Eknath Shinde.