Patna: With just days to go before Bihar votes, the 2025 Assembly Elections have turned into a fierce political face-off between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s NDA and Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan. As the two-phase polling — scheduled for November 6 and 11 — approaches, the spotlight has shifted to Rajasthan’s Phalodi betting market, often seen as an uncanny predictor of political outcomes in India.
According to the latest trends emerging from Phalodi, the NDA is expected to return to power comfortably, crossing the majority mark of 122 seats in Bihar’s 243-member assembly. Market odds suggest the ruling coalition could win between 128 and 134 seats, signaling strong voter confidence in Nitish Kumar’s leadership and PM Modi’s influence.
Within the alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), contesting 101 seats, is projected to win 66 to 68 seats, while Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is expected to bag 54 to 56 seats. Smaller NDA allies are predicted to contribute marginally but effectively to the coalition’s majority.
On the other side, the opposition Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, appears to be losing ground. Bettors predict the alliance will manage 93 to 99 seats, well short of the majority. The RJD, contesting 143 seats, is projected to secure 69 to 71, while Congress and Left parties are expected to perform dismally, continuing their downward trend from the last election.
The Phalodi market — known for closely tracking political momentum and public sentiment — has also started betting on Bihar’s next Chief Minister. Current odds place Nitish Kumar as the clear favorite, trading between 40 and 45 paise, suggesting bettors are almost certain of his victory. Odds for Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor have not yet surfaced, reflecting limited confidence in their prospects.
