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Market Outlook: Upside likely to be limited; 11,650 remains key hurdle for Nifty

@rex_cano

Mumbai: The markets after exhibiting nervousness in the first half of the trading session, firmed up in the latter half on the back of fresh buying in financial shares. The BSE benchmark index, the Sensex, opened 150-odd points higher at 38,905, and tested a low of 38,754 in morning deals. The Sensex eventually jumped to a high of 39,102 and settled with a gain of 288 points at 39,044.

Among the Sensex 30 stocks, IndusInd Bank surged 4 per cent. Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank, and PowerGrid Corporation gained 1-2 per cent each. On the flip side, Titan, Maruti Suzuki and ITC slipped around a per cent each.

The Sensex moved in a fairly narrow range compared to its previous trading session, thus not giving any new indication. As per the weekly and monthly Fibonacci chart, the bias for the week and the month is likely to remain that of limited upside, with stiff resistance likely around the 39,250-39,300 range.

Also Read: Market Outlook: Fresh gains for Sensex only above 39,300-level

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, on Wednesday, in case of an up move the BSE Sensex is likely to face resistance around 39,180-39,220-39,260. Whereas, in case of a decline the Sensex may seek support around 38,910-38,870-38,830.

The NSE Nifty moved in a narrow band of 90-odd points. The index from a low of 11,442 touched a high of 11,536 before ending 72 points higher at 11,522. The NSE index has ended above its 20-DMA for the fourth straight trading session, which is a good indication. However, select key momentum oscillators both on the daily and weekly charts are unfavorable, thus making this current up move susceptible to likely selling pressure at higher levels.

Going ahead, the bias for the Nifty is likely to remain on the rise as long as the NSE index does not break and close above 11,650-level. In other words, the upside for the Nifty seems likely to be capped around 11,650. On the other hand, sustained trade below its 20-DMA at 11,440, can trigger a fresh round of weakness.

Among the key momentum oscillators on the daily charts, the DI (Directional Index) continues to remain positive. The Slow Stochastic is also positive, but showing some signs of tiredness. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains inconclusive and the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in the neutral zone.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal and for information purpose only, it does not advocate any buy or sell /recommendation. 

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Rex Cano
Rex Cano
Having worked as a journalist mostly in the financial domain for over 20 years, he has gained and applied knowledge of markets in his tenure with established and reputed organisations - IIFL, Sharekhan, Business Standard, HDFC Sec to name a few. He further explored his editorial skills and expertise while working with Free Press Journal and SBI Mutual Fund. He continues to draw inspiration from his passion for numbers with the aim to simplify the market know-how to those who love it.

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@rex_cano

Mumbai: The markets after exhibiting nervousness in the first half of the trading session, firmed up in the latter half on the back of fresh buying in financial shares. The BSE benchmark index, the Sensex, opened 150-odd points higher at 38,905, and tested a low of 38,754 in morning deals. The Sensex eventually jumped to a high of 39,102 and settled with a gain of 288 points at 39,044.

Among the Sensex 30 stocks, IndusInd Bank surged 4 per cent. Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank, and PowerGrid Corporation gained 1-2 per cent each. On the flip side, Titan, Maruti Suzuki and ITC slipped around a per cent each.

The Sensex moved in a fairly narrow range compared to its previous trading session, thus not giving any new indication. As per the weekly and monthly Fibonacci chart, the bias for the week and the month is likely to remain that of limited upside, with stiff resistance likely around the 39,250-39,300 range.

Also Read: Market Outlook: Fresh gains for Sensex only above 39,300-level

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, on Wednesday, in case of an up move the BSE Sensex is likely to face resistance around 39,180-39,220-39,260. Whereas, in case of a decline the Sensex may seek support around 38,910-38,870-38,830.

The NSE Nifty moved in a narrow band of 90-odd points. The index from a low of 11,442 touched a high of 11,536 before ending 72 points higher at 11,522. The NSE index has ended above its 20-DMA for the fourth straight trading session, which is a good indication. However, select key momentum oscillators both on the daily and weekly charts are unfavorable, thus making this current up move susceptible to likely selling pressure at higher levels.

Going ahead, the bias for the Nifty is likely to remain on the rise as long as the NSE index does not break and close above 11,650-level. In other words, the upside for the Nifty seems likely to be capped around 11,650. On the other hand, sustained trade below its 20-DMA at 11,440, can trigger a fresh round of weakness.

Among the key momentum oscillators on the daily charts, the DI (Directional Index) continues to remain positive. The Slow Stochastic is also positive, but showing some signs of tiredness. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains inconclusive and the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in the neutral zone.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal and for information purpose only, it does not advocate any buy or sell /recommendation. 

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Rex Cano
Rex Cano
Having worked as a journalist mostly in the financial domain for over 20 years, he has gained and applied knowledge of markets in his tenure with established and reputed organisations - IIFL, Sharekhan, Business Standard, HDFC Sec to name a few. He further explored his editorial skills and expertise while working with Free Press Journal and SBI Mutual Fund. He continues to draw inspiration from his passion for numbers with the aim to simplify the market know-how to those who love it.

39 COMMENTS

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    Respite c start your $1000 PLAY IT AGAIN gratuity and deny b decrease every twirl, hand and rotate into official banknotes rewards.
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LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

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