Central Hall – MVAs wobbly gyroscope!

Mumbai: Little would have the other two constituents of the Shiv Sena led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress would have imagined that their chosen handmaiden would prove more than a match for them.

Both the NCP and the Congress must not have bargained this for when they managed to wean Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Although they must have fulfilled Uddhav Thackeray’s dream, ambition of becoming the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, both of them are now finding him to be a tough nut to crack and no push over.

If they might have thought that by hoisting a political rookie at the helm, they would be able to go about their own business as usual, the two appear to have grossly underestimated Thackeray.

The usual brow-beating “it is because of us…” kind of argument was swiftly met with a counter punch reminding the two that the Sena too had sacrificed NDA power in the Center.

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The short-shrift from the Sena has been too much to bear especially for the Congress which has never been used to being given such a treatment by any of its allies. The Sena however has been an altogether new cup of tea.

Predictably the murmur is being more heard from the Congress than the NCP. For the Congress, Thackeray giving cold shoulder to its senior leaders, former chief ministers like Ashok Chavan has been too much to bear.

The Hobson’s choice for the Congress is that if it chooses to walk-out of this political Bermuda triangle, it is unsure of what fate is in store. If it continues to hang on to the power which it was so desperate for, then it has to endure not just an intransigent Sena, but also more cunning NCP that seems to be using power to rebuild itself.

If not run the Congress runs the risk of a split in the rank and file as the little dynasties within the party fold are unhappy at being overlooked. Moreover, it is unsure of what its ally the NCP might do just in case if it decides to pull out of the MVA alliance government.

At the hindsight the BJP and Devendra Fadnavis must be thanking their stars which did not favor the continuation of their two decade old saffron alliance. Uddhav Thackeray had the better off Fadnavis whose self-proclamation of returning to power undid the alliance and presented an backdoor entry to the Congress-NCP to return to power at the expense of the BJP.

However, it is highly unlikely that the BJP might to be too keen on immediately staking claim to power. The Covid-19 pandemic has created a situation that is making the Congress feel uncomfortable given the shortcomings of the government in dealing with the crisis and overcoming it.

The collateral damage of the pandemic is equal for all and hence it is bit premature for any one party or an alliance to stake claim to form the next government. It is more likely that the state might be heading for yet another bout of Presidents Rule.

The BJP ideally would want to utilize the Presidents Rule to bring the pandemic under control and bring the state’s economy back on track. The months of October-November are crucial as not just the state of Bihar goes for Assembly elections, another lot of 12 Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand are up for grabs. There is a distinct possibility of early mid-term assembly elections in Maharashtra along with Bihar elections later this year.

For the Sena too it will be a difficult scenario to handle. Just in case if the Congress were to pull out of the MVA, it would be difficult for it to retrace its steps back to the BJP led NDA fold after having hurled choicest abuses at its former ally while snapping ties with it and join hands with ideologically diametrically opposite partners in sharing power with them.

The situation at the China border is also a determining factor besides the prevailing Coronavirus crisis. The Center would ideally like to have some stability in an economically important state like Maharashtra, as continued lockdown conditions would not send the right signals to investors and Multi-National Companies (MNCs) wanting to shift their production base to India.

Right now the gyroscope of stability seems to be wobbling threatening to spin the MVA government out of control and bringing its rocket crashing down in just seven months of its launch in November of 2019.