N Muraleedharan
Thiruvananthapuram
Congress has run into a quandary in Maharashtra, from which only a miracle can extricate it. Whether it props up a NCP-Shiv Sena government or not, the grand old party is going to be the short and long term loser in the politically crucial state.
Look at a set of options before Congress. It can have the vicarious pleasure of denying the BJP power by backing the NCP-Shiv Sena combine. Such an ideologically unjustified and politically shortsighted experiment is certain to shrink Congress’s space further in the state, with its ill-effects being felt beyond the state borders. Now consider another choice.
The party comes clean out of the present mess and choose to remain silent till fresh elections are called. Then, what guarantee is there that the party will fare better and improve its tally? Will Congress be able to prevail upon NCP to steer clear of Shiv Sena and force a three-way division in the elections? Going by its current profile, Congress is unlikely to be the dominant partner in an alliance that is opposed to both Shiv Sena and the BJP.
Though remote, there is a third option. Congress can allow an NCP-led government in which Shiv Sena is a partner for some time. But going by the convulsions that the neighbouring Karnataka witnessed in recent times it would be unwise to opt for that. The BJP is down but not out. With its organizational might and immense resources at its command, it will not remain silent and allow the government to function for long. The saffron party will be waiting for an opportune moment to topple the regime, by the methods it has successfully applied in Goa and Karnataka. It is also possible that, after a while, the coalition may cower under the weight of its own contradictions.
The unfolding scenario is sure to corrode the constituency of Congress in both rural and urban areas. This would mean Congress will continue to stagnate in the fourth position in the state, after the BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena. If it succeeds in forming the government or not, NCP will be able retain its support base intact in its spheres of influence so long as Sharad Pawar continues the supremo. The Sena, which has a strong network in Mumbai and other urban areas and keeping its sway over the OBCs in semi-urban and rural stretches, can also withstand the future shocks to some extent.
A fractious and poorly organised Congress, in contrast, will find it pretty tough to not only defend its present strength but stands the distinct possibility of further losing ground in all regions of the state. The BJP will be focussing on shoring up its support base in areas where the rivals put up a good showing and frustrated its aim of notching up higher numbers in the polls. It will also try to generate sympathy as the victim of Shiv Sena’s treachery.
Congress will also find it hard to be a strong opposition force, if it decides to back the government from outside. At a time when the country is heading to hard times economically, as the main national opposition, Congress is expected to be in forefront of mass struggles. This is especially crucial in a major agricultural state like Maharashtra. It will not be easy for any party to organize and sustain campaigns by being part of the government, though indirectly. Having pushed to play, a double role, the party will be confronted with a credibility crisis and fail to regain the confidence of the people.
The argument that the BJP can be made to suffer by coming in the way of it installing a government in the financial hub of the country sounds weak. The BJP top leadership enjoys immense clout with Corporate India not because it has been in power in Maharashtra. The party receives the support of business honchos essentially due to its wielding unlimited power at the Centre.
Last but not least, if it props up a government in which Shiv Sena is a component, Congress stands to forfeit high moral ground as custodian of republican values it has always claimed over others. It will have to face the adverse fallout outside Maharashtra. Congress might have politically engaged Sena in a limited fashion at different points in the past. But in the changed circumstances, doing business with Sena, overtly or covertly, can seriously dent its loud insistence of being the torch-bearer of secularism.
(N Muraleedharan is senior journalist and political commentator.)
