Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is headed for a short-duration but high-intensity campaign, with the Election Commission of India setting April 9 as the polling date for the Assembly elections in the state.
The voting date is a little earlier than anticipated. Leaders of political parties were expecting that polling in the state would be scheduled between April 15 and 25. This would have given them greater leverage to tie up some loose ends before hitting the campaign trail in full force.
No tectonic shift, bipolarity to remain
Kerala is not set for a tectonic political shift this time either. The decades-long bipolarity of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) as the principal combatants is expected to continue.
By all prevailing indications, the contest between the two coalitions is likely to be close.
The BJP is yet to emerge as a force capable of turning elections across the entire state into a three-way contest. However, in a few seats, the party is set to make the fight triangular. Even so, the party’s presence is visible across the state as a serious contender.
LDF: Strong leadership, central command and control
Strong leadership and a centralised command-and-control structure are the biggest assets of the LDF, which is bidding for a third straight term under the leadership of CPI(M) veteran Pinarayi Vijayan.
The CPI(M) and the CPI, the two key parties in the LDF, have already finalised their candidate lists.
Both parties have retained all their ministers and most of their MLAs. This marks a major departure from 2021, when the CPI(M) dropped all its cabinet nominees except the chief minister and the then health minister K. K. Shailaja.
Development and policy continuity are the key slogans of the front.
In 2021, the LDF swept the polls, winning 99 seats in the 140-member House. However, it suffered a major setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the state.
The outcome of the civic polls held in December last year also dealt a blow to the confidence of the LDF. The front — especially the CPI(M) — has since tried to revive its morale and regain lost ground in its bid to secure a historic third term in power.
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LS, local polls give hope for the UDF
The UDF is in an upbeat mood this time.
Despite being less organisationally cohesive, the coalition’s strong performance in the local body elections has come as a booster shot.
The front hopes to stall the LDF’s bid for a hat-trick victory by capitalising on anti-incumbency sentiments reflected in the civic polls.
The overwhelming consolidation of Muslim and Christian minorities in many parts of the state, as witnessed in the local polls, has also boosted the coalition’s confidence.
The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second-largest partner in the UDF, performed strongly in local elections in its traditional strongholds in the Malabar region, particularly in Malappuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad districts.
The UDF is fighting the election on a strong welfare pitch. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, at a party rally recently, unveiled a teaser of the coalition’s electoral promises centred on welfare schemes and support for the less privileged, youth and women. More details are expected in the election manifesto.
BJP: Struggling to walk the talk
Never before has the BJP entered the campaign trail in Kerala with such high hopes.
The party is not realistically aiming to wrest power. Winning even a few seats would itself be a significant development in the state’s politics, where the party has largely remained an also-ran despite steadily increasing its vote share.
Several top BJP leaders are set to contest the elections. The line-up includes state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, former Union minister V. Muraleedharan, and former state president K. Surendran.
The party is concentrating its energy on a limited number of constituencies where its prominent leaders are contesting.
The BJP campaign centres on the “double-engine development model”, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi projected as the central icon. The development narrative is reinforced by the political argument that both the LDF and the UDF are “two sides of the same coin,” as both are partners in the I.N.D.I.A bloc at the national level.
The party hopes to turn the contest into a triangular fight in around 10 seats across the state.
The regions where it hopes to make gains include Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad, Thrissur, and parts of Kasaragod district.
Sabarimala gold scam a key campaign theme
Apart from broader political and policy issues, both the UDF and the BJP are likely to raise the Sabarimala temple gold scam as a major campaign issue against the LDF.
The tactical shift of the LDF government on the question of allowing women of all ages to enter the Sabarimala shrine is also expected to be used by the opposition as a campaign plank.
