@prashanthamine
Mumbai: By contesting 73 seats in 2015 Bihar assembly elections, the Shiv Sena had stunned its former ally the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with whom it was sharing power in Maharashtra. But in the end it had helped the BJP and damaged the poll prospects of the Janata Dal (United) led then Mahagathbandhan. This time around the Sena might find it tougher and as a wise after thought has apparently decided to contest around 35 to 40 seats. While the Sena has decided to take on JD-U candidate and former Bihar DGP Gupteshwar Pandey, it might not be easy with the Sushant Singh Rajput case probe casting its long shadow over the polls in Bihar.
Back in the 2015 Bihar assembly polls, the Shiv Sena had contested 73 assembly seats and had failed to win a single seat, but managed to poll 2,11,136 votes at 0.55 percent. In none of the 73 seats were the votes polled by the Sena was in excess of the victory margin of its rivals, that indicated that it had played a spoilsport for the BJP led NDA.
A close scrutiny of the 2015 results of 73 seats that the Sena had contested reveals that the Sena votes had actually helped the BJP win in seven seats and marred its chances in just three seats. On the contrary Sena votes made Janata Dal-United (JD-U) to lose six seats, while it was instrumental in JD-U winning just two seats.
Maybe it appears as though the Sena which now leads the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in Maharashtra, would like to do a repeat of what it did in the 2015 polls, that is to damage electoral prospects of the JD-U which is now part of the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and help the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress led Mahagathbandhan.
But much water has flown underneath the bridge since 2015 and more so, recently. The JD-U president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar ordered a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into the mysterious death of Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput just a few months ago before the Bihar assembly elections were due to be announced.
The ugly spat between then Bihar DGP Gupteshwar Pandey over the Mumbai police probe into the SSR case seems to have spurred the Sena in fielding its candidate against Pandey who is now the JD-U candidate from the Buxar seat. Back in 2015 polls, the Congress had won the Buxar seat defeating the JD-U candidate by a margin of 10,181 votes with Sena candidate polling just 1,473 votes.
The Sena has included Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, his son and Minister for Environment Aaditya Thackeray, Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut among others as its star campaigners for the Bihar assembly polls.
It remains to be seen as to what kind of response the Sena get in the aftermath of the muddied SSR probe. The CBI team has come back to Mumbai to recommence its investigation. It comes at a time when Bihar will go to polls in three phases on October 28, November 3 and November 7. Any action by the CBI in the case is bound to have its impact on the Bihar assembly polls.
Another potential flashpoint between the Sena and the JD-U could well be the return of the migrant labour from Bihar in the aftermath of the lockdown announced in March earlier this year. Besides, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar accounts for being the second largest state for migrant labour population.
It may be recalled that the Sena had chastised Bollywood actor Sonu Sood for helping out fellow Bihari migrant labourers to reach back to their native places in Bihar and overlooking the plight of migrant population from Maharashtra stuck in other parts of the country.
Sood later was seen calling on the Sena leadership to smoothen the ruffled feathers, with the Sena gleefully remarking how it made the Bollywood star trace the path to Matoshree in Bandra. It remains to be seen as to whether this issue too becomes a poll issue in the Bihar assembly elections.
Back in 2015, the JD-U overcame the anti-incumbency factor against it by joining hands with the Mahagathbandhan, only to snap it ties mid-way in 2017 and once again form the government with the support of the BJP.
This time around although the Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has stepped out of the BJP led NDA, but has not snapped its ties with the BJP. The BJP has managed to bargain a deal with the JD-U, while letting it stake claim to the Chief Ministers post, it has managed to strike a deal for 121 seats for itself, allowing JD-U to contest 122 seats in the 243 member Bihar legislative assembly.
But the BJP has accommodated the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Bollywood art director Mukesh Sahani into its NDA fold by allocating 11 seats. The VIP was earlier part of the Mahagathbandhan in 2015 and had failed to win a single seat then. The Bollywood footprint over the Bihar assembly elections is too overbearing to ignore.
| 2015 AE | Seats Tally | |||
| Party | Contested | Won | Votes Polled | Percentage |
| BJP | 157 | 53 | 9308015 | 24.42% |
| CPI-ML-L | 98 | 3 | 587704 | 1.54% |
| HAM-S | 21 | 1 | 864856 | 2.27% |
| INDPTS | 1150 | 4 | 3581015 | 9.39% |
| Congress | 41 | 27 | 2539638 | 6.66% |
| JD-U | 101 | 71 | 6417041 | 16.83% |
| LJSP | 42 | 2 | 1840834 | 4.83% |
| RJD | 101 | 80 | 6995509 | 18.35% |
| RLSP/BLSP | 23 | 2 | 976940 | 2.56% |
| SHS | 73 | 0 | 211136 | 0.55% |
| NOTA | 243 | 0 | 947279 | 2.48% |
| 243 | 34269967 | 89.88% |
