Rajeev Chandrasekhar Brings Hope to Kerala BJP, but Odds Remain Grim

Thiruvananthapuram: In a deft move, the BJP’s central leadership has appointed Rajeev Chandrasekhar as the president of the party’s Kerala unit.

The choice sends out a clear message against the perennial factionalism in the state unit, even as the party remains an also-ran in Kerala’s electoral ecosystem, dominated by coalitions led by the CPI(M) and the Congress.

The 61-year-old technocrat-turned-politician, who has long been based in Karnataka’s capital, Bengaluru, is not entirely new to Kerala. In last year’s Lok Sabha polls, he gave Congress leader Shashi Tharoor a stiff fight in Thiruvananthapuram but lost in the final rounds of counting.

A Malayali by origin, Chandrasekhar has also headed the state chapter of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and is a former Union Minister. He was twice elected to the Rajya Sabha from Karnataka.

His appointment brings a fresh face and energy to a party in the state that has so far been firmly controlled by a set of home-grown leaders with little or no mass appeal.

This time, the party’s national leadership appears to have placed its trust in Chandrasekhar with the clear task of consolidating the support base and attracting fresh sections of voters—both critical for an electoral breakthrough.

Significantly, Chandrasekhar takes charge just a year before the state assembly elections.

For decades, the BJP in Kerala has installed newly appointed state chiefs with pomp and fanfare, accompanied by loud assertions. The same is true this time as well. Posing before news cameras, beaming leaders have pledged total support to the new chief.

Despite trying out new faces, the party’s electoral fortunes in the state have remained stunted. Of course, it made a breakthrough when actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi won the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat last year. However, the party still has no representation in the state assembly. In 2021, it even lost the lone seat it had won in 2016, taking it back to square one.

The odds against the party in the state are so steep that neither the personal appeal of a leader nor a thorough organizational revamp may be enough to change its fortunes.

BJP’s Strengths and Challenges

One advantage for the BJP in Kerala is its dedicated and hard-working cadre down to the grassroots. The party has established units across the state, painstakingly built since the Jana Sangh days by hard-working forerunners, most of them RSS assignees. Over the last few decades, its support base has expanded further, with large sections of the Hindu middle class shifting from the Congress to the saffron party, particularly following the rise of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister.

Despite these advantages, every step forward made by the party in Kerala seems to be followed by two steps back.

The fundamental reason for the BJP’s electoral failure lies in Kerala’s demographic reality, where minority communities account for nearly 50% of the population.

There are two ways the party could break this deadlock. First, it could seek overwhelming support from the Hindu community. Alternatively, it could attempt to gain the confidence of at least a section of the minorities. Both options, however, are difficult to achieve in the near future. The so-called “social engineering” that worked for the party in northern states has floundered in Kerala.

Winning Over Christian Voters: A Possible Opening?

Amid this bleak socio-political scenario, a few strategic opportunities remain. One is to build bridges with the Christian minority.

Suresh Gopi would not have won the Thrissur seat without support from a section of the Christian community. Though winning over all church denominations remains a challenge, at least a segment of the home-grown Syrian Catholic establishment has, at times, sent signals that it is not entirely averse to engaging with the BJP—the biggest national party that has been in power at the Centre for over a decade.

As in other parts of the country, however, the prospect of the BJP garnering even a fraction of Muslim votes in Kerala remains nearly nonexistent. Moreover, strategic voting by the Muslim electorate will continue to pose the most formidable challenge for the BJP, especially in constituencies where it makes its best efforts.

Unlike the two other major coalitions in the state, the NDA is virtually a one-party show. The BJP has struggled to attract and retain regional allies.

The Road Ahead for the BJP in Kerala

Given these realities, the BJP’s best viable option is to make renewed efforts to expand its base among the Hindu electorate, particularly among socially and politically less privileged sections. A vast majority of them still prefer to vote for the LDF in assembly polls, largely due to the perception that a UDF victory would benefit the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) more than the lead partner, Congress.

Additionally, in the evolving political landscape, at least a section of BJP sympathizers may begin to see the LDF as a preferable alternative to a UDF coalition dominated by minority interests.

For a long time, the BJP in Kerala has been reactive rather than proactive in setting the political agenda. Whether Rajeev Chandrasekhar will be able to establish an active, pro-development, and aspirational agenda for the party remains the immediate question he must address.