Not the Sena, but Mahagathbandhan spoiled BJP’s poll prospects in 2015 Bihar assembly polls

Actually the Sena had helped BJP win some seats it had contested and also damaged the electoral prospects of JD-Us Mahanayak Nitish Kumar.

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: Finally a myth about the Shiv Sena having damaged the electoral prospects of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in at least 35 assembly seats in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections has been busted. A close scrutiny of the results of 73 seats that the Sena had contested reveals that the Sena votes had actually helped the BJP win in seven seats and marred its chances in just three seats. On the contrary Sena votes made Janata Dal-United (JD-U) to loose six seats, while it was instrumental in JD-U winning just two seats.

It was actually the then Mahagathbandhan of JD-U, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress that caused defeat for the BJP in 31 of the 73 seats contested by the Sena, and not the Sena as was being widely believed.

The issue cropped up once again recently as JD-U president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar ordered a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into the mysterious death of Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput just months ahead of the assembly elections due in October-November this year.

The Shiv Sena had contested 73 assembly seats in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, failing to win a single seat, but managed to poll 2,11,136 votes at 0.55 percent.

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Out of the 73 seats the Sena contested, it managed to poll in excess of 2,000 votes in 29 assembly constituencies. Again out of the 29 seats, only in seven seat’s it managed to poll in excess of 8,000 votes – Laukaha 14,445 votes, Balrampur 9,473 votes, Bochaha 11,877 votes, Morwa 9,380 votes, Jamalpur 8,228 votes, Lakhisarai 11,551 votes and Gurua 8,007 votes.

In the 73 assembly seats contested by the Shiv Sena, the BJP lost in 31 seats because of huge JD-U, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress victory margins and where the Sena votes polled were less than 2,000 votes. In none of the 73 seats were the votes polled by the Sena was in excess of the victory margin of its rivals, indicating that it had played a spoil sport for the BJP led NDA.

The BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprising of – Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (BSLP), Hindustani Awami Morcha – Secular (HAM-S) and Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) had won 16 seats and lost in 57 seats out of the 73 seats.

On the other hand the Mahagathbandhan comprising of JD-U, RJD, Congress and Vanchitsamaj Insaaf Party (VIP) had won 54 seats and lost 19 seats out of the 73 seats contested by the Sena.

The party-wise break-up wins and losses in the 73 seats contested by the Sena is as follows: BJP – won 14, lost 31 seats; Congress – won 9, lost 5 seats; JD-U – won 28, lost 11 seats; RJD – won 17, lost 3 seats; LJP – won 1, lost 10 seats; BLSP – won 1, lost 11 seats; HAM-S – won 0, lost 5 seats and Shiv Sena – won 0, lost 73 seats.

Thanks to substantial votes garnered by the Sena, the BJP was able to win seven seats of – Balrampur, Siwan, Lakhisarai, Patna Sahib, Bhabua, Goh and Gurua. The BJP lost the three seats of Bettiah, Laukaha and Morwa due to somewhat sizable Sena votes. Out of the seven seats won by the BJP, the RJD lost the Patna Sahib seat, whereas the JD-U lost the remaining six to the BJP. Again out of the three seats lost by the BJP, the Congress managed to win Bettiah, while JD-U managed to win Laukaha and Morwa seats.

In the final analysis, when one considers the overall 2015 result for the 243 member Bihar assembly, even the CPI-ML-L and HAM-S seem to have performed a lot better than the Sena. Even the None of The Above (NOTA) option bagged 9.47 lakh votes in all the 243 assembly constituencies at an percentage of 2.48 percent.

The BJP contested 157 seats, won 53 seats, polled 93.08 lakh votes at a percentage of 24.42 percent; CPI-ML-L contested 98 seats, won 3 seats, polled 5.87 lakh votes at a percentage of 1.54 percent; HAM-S contested 21 seats, won 1 seat, polled 8.64 lakh votes at a percentage of 2.27 percent; 1,150 Independent’s contested in 243 seats, won 4 seats, polled 35.81 lakh votes at a percentage of 9.39 percent; Congress contested 41 seats, won 27 seats, polled 25.39 lakh votes at a percentage of 6.66 percent.

The JD-U contested 101 seats, out of which it won 71 seats, polled 64.17 lakh votes at an percentage of 16.83 percent; LJSP contested 42 seats, won 2 seats, polled 18.40 lakh votes at an percentage of 4.83 percent; RJD contested 101 seats, won 80 seats, polled 69.95 lakh votes at an percentage of 18.35 percent; BLSP contested 23 seats, won 2 seats, polled 9.76 lakh at a percentage of 2.56 percent; Shiv Sena contested 73 seats, won 0 seats, polled 2.11 lakh votes at a percentage of 0.55 percent.

In the current scenario, at present, the BJP led NDA has 129 seats, has a vote share of 1.94 crore votes at a percentage of 50.91 percent. This includes the JD-U vote share as it switched sides back to the NDA. A depleted RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan has  110 seats, with a vote share of 1.03 crore votes at a percentage of 27.10 percent.