Major Setback Looms for NDA in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, West Bengal; Poll Surveys Indicate Significant Losses

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The first phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India is scheduled for April 19th. As the nation gears up for the crucial polls, several pre-election surveys are indicating potential setbacks for the ruling BJP-led NDA alliance in various states.

West Bengal: According to the Lokpol survey, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is predicted to win 26-28 seats, while the Congress is expected to secure 2-4 seats, and the BJP is projected to win 11-13 seats in West Bengal.

Here are our final numbers for the state of #WestBengal:

▪️TMC 26 – 28
▪️BJP 11 – 13
▪️INC 02 – 04

Sample size: 1,350 per Parliamentary constituency.#LoksabhaElections2024 #Elections2024 #LokSabhaElections #GeneralElections2024 #INDIA #NDA pic.twitter.com/K8bodx7Qrc

— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) April 11, 2024

Rajasthan: In Rajasthan, the Lokpol survey suggests that the NDA alliance will get 17-19 seats, while the opposition India Alliance is likely to win 6-8 seats. This marks a significant change from the 2019 elections, where the BJP had swept all 25 seats in the state.

The #Rajasthan, known as the 'Land of the Kings,' has our final prediction for the Lok sabha polls:

▪️NDA Bloc 17 – 19
▪️INDIA Bloc 06 – 08 (INC 4 – 6)

Sample size: 1,350 per Parliamentary constituency.#LoksabhaElections2024 #Elections2024 #LokSabhaElections… pic.twitter.com/Nyi6cLAl5G

— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) April 10, 2024

Maharashtra: The pre-election surveys paint a mixed picture in Maharashtra. The Lokpol survey indicates that the India Aghadi (the opposition alliance) is expected to secure 23-26 seats. However, the ABP CVoter survey gives the India Aghadi 20 seats and the NDA alliance 28 seats, with both alliances receiving around 42-43% of the votes.

Presenting our final numbers for #Maharashtra, the largest state in the West:

▪️NDA Bloc 21 – 24 (BJP 14 – 17)
▪️INDIA Bloc 23 – 26 (INC 9 – 12)
▪️Others 0 – 1

Sample size: 1,350 per Parliamentary constituency.#LoksabhaElections2024 #Elections2024… pic.twitter.com/oiYsbl5U9C

— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) April 9, 2024

The News 18 survey predicts a more substantial lead for the India Aghadi, with 41 seats, while the NDA is projected to win only 7 seats. On the other hand, the Times Now ETG survey suggests a close contest, with the Mahayutli (grand alliance) poised to win 34-38 seats and the India Aghadi predicted to secure 9-13 seats.

The India TV CNX survey favors the NDA, giving them 35 seats with 53% of the votes, while the India Aghadi is expected to win 13 seats with 35% of the votes. Finally, the India Today Mood of the Nation survey predicts 22 seats for the NDA with 40.5% of the votes and 26 seats for the India Aghadi with 44.5% of the votes.

It is worth noting that in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, the BJP and Shiv Sena were part of the NDA alliance, which won 41 seats (23 for BJP and 18 for Shiv Sena). The NCP secured 4 seats, and the Congress won 1 seat. However, the current political landscape has changed, with the Shiv Sena and NCP now part of the India Aghadi alliance.

As the nation heads into the first phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, these pre-election surveys highlight the intense competition and fluid political dynamics across various states. The actual results will ultimately be determined by the voters’ choices on election day.

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