The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is emerging as the frontrunner in the upcoming Kerala Assembly Elections 2026, according to a major pre-poll survey, signaling a possible shift in the state’s political landscape.
UDF Ahead in Vote Share Race
The survey conducted by Poll Mantra with 26,000 respondents shows UDF leading with 38.2% vote share. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) follows at 33.7%, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stands at 20.4%. Around 8% voters remain undecided, which could play a crucial role in the final outcome.
CM Face Race Heats Up in UDF
Within the UDF, V D Satheesan leads the chief ministerial race with 29.5% support. He is closely followed by K C Venugopal at 28.2% and Shashi Tharoor at 23.4%, indicating a tight internal contest.
Vijayan vs Shailaja in LDF Camp
In the LDF, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan remains the top choice with 38.2% support. However, he faces strong competition from former minister K K Shailaja, who has 32.5% backing and strong support among women and key communities.
Venugopal Emerges as Top Choice
At a broader level, K C Venugopal has emerged as the most preferred CM face among influencers, with 46.8% support, ahead of Vijayan at 27.9%. The survey highlights Venugopal’s strong cross-demographic appeal, especially among Christian voters (33.2%), Muslim voters (29.5%), and youth aged 18–35 (33.9%).
Rahul Gandhi Tops National Influence
Among national leaders, Rahul Gandhi is seen as the most influential by 44.2% respondents in Kerala. He is followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at 19.5%, while Vijayan stands at 16.8%.
LDF Government Faces Negative Ratings
The survey shows a challenging perception for the LDF government. Around 31% rated its performance as “very poor” and 20.9% as “poor.” Only 23.8% rated it “excellent,” indicating anti-incumbency sentiment.
Development Trust Index Favors UDF
On development credibility, the Congress-led UDF leads with 38.9% trust among voters, compared to 27.8% for the CPI(M)-led LDF and 23.1% for the BJP-led NDA.
NDA’s CM Pick Clear
Within the NDA, Rajeev Chandrasekhar is the clear favourite for chief minister with 52.1% support, far ahead of K Surendran at 22.4%.
Survey Based on Large Sample
The survey was conducted across Kerala with a sample size of 26,000 respondents, covering various demographics including age, gender, and community groups.
With the UDF gaining momentum and the LDF facing growing criticism, the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections are shaping up to be a high-stakes and closely watched political battle.
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