Kerala Poll Outcome to Have Long-Term Implications for Parties, Players

Thiruvananthapuram: Whichever way the tide turns, the outcome of the upcoming Assembly elections in Kerala will have long-term implications for all the three players in the fray — the CPI(M), the Congress and the BJP.

Apart from shaping the state’s future political profile, the results will also impact the central figures who lead their respective sides.

Retaining power is vital for the CPI(M), which leads the Left Democratic Front (LDF). A defeat would mean the mainstream Left losing power in the sole state where it still holds office.

For the Congress, which heads the United Democratic Front (UDF), capturing power in Kerala would serve as a booster shot after losing almost all the states that went to polls after the 2024 general elections.

Among the poll-bound states, Kerala stands out as the most promising pitch for the party.

In West Bengal, the Congress is nowhere in the picture.

Also Read: Kerala Polls: Pinarayi Vijayan Set to Lead LDF Campaign for Third Consecutive Term

Also Read: Kerala Polls: Pinarayi Vijayan Set to Lead LDF Campaign for Third Consecutive Term

In Assam, the party is facing a stiff challenge from the BJP. It is also rattled by the desertion of some senior leaders, miffed by the high command placing its bet on Gaurav Gogoi, who is the preferred choice of the party’s first family.

All this boils down to one conclusion: a victory in Kerala is crucial for the party to remain in the reckoning for the electoral battles ahead.

Wresting power in Kerala would bolster the Congress’s standing as the pre-eminent force south of the Vindhyas. The party is already in power in Karnataka and Telangana, and is an electoral partner of the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu.

Though Congress leaders had bargained hard to elevate the alliance with the DMK in Tamil Nadu to participation in power, the ruling party refused to budge.

Since the watershed Assembly election of 1967, when the undivided Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) swept to power by humbling the Congress, no national party has been able to seize power in the state.

Significantly, the opposition AIADMK — with the BJP as an open partner this time — has also refrained from calling the alliance the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), floated by actor-politician Vijay, has added a new dimension to Tamil Nadu’s electoral politics. If it manages to notch up a decent number of seats, Vijay could even emerge as a king-maker — a paradigm-altering scenario for the state.

A defeat in Kerala would also dampen the Congress’s prospects in the Karnataka Assembly elections due in early 2028. It could trigger fresh turbulence within the party in the state, where Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar has been contending for the top slot, currently held by Siddaramaiah.

Failure to wrest power in Kerala would also be a blow to the prestige of the Congress’s first family. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra now represents the Wayanad seat in the Lok Sabha, which her brother Rahul Gandhi vacated after his second consecutive victory in the 2024 general elections.

Still lagging far behind the two main coalitions, the BJP in Kerala has hit the campaign trail by launching a focused strategy, recalibrating its energy and resources.

Winning even a few seats would itself be a significant achievement for the party, given its dismal electoral history and the political and demographic challenges it faces in the state.

If the party manages to win even a handful of seats, it could gradually reshape Kerala’s bipolar political landscape, if not immediately.

The electoral outcome also has the potential to make or unmake the personal standing of key actors.

A hat-trick victory would elevate incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan to iconic status within the party and in the annals of Kerala’s political history. On the flip side, a defeat could signal a voluntary or party-prompted retirement for the 80-year-old leader, as happened in the case of his predecessor V.S. Achuthanandan in 2016.

Though the Congress is going to the polls without projecting any particular leader as chief ministerial candidate, Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan is widely seen as the frontrunner. If the UDF returns to power with a comfortable majority, he would be a strong contender, though senior leader Ramesh Chennithala has not ruled himself out of the race.

If the UDF ends up losing for a third consecutive time, it could trigger upheaval within the state Congress.

In the BJP, state party chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar is not only the pivot of the campaign but also a leading candidate. If the party fails to make a mark, it could prove a major setback for him personally.

With the Election Commission expected to announce poll dates this week, the electoral temperature in the state has already begun to rise.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi kicked off the UDF campaign in the state capital on Saturday by addressing a rally that marked the culmination of the party’s statewide yatra led by Satheesan. The event also served as a platform to unveil the coalition’s welfare pitch targeting women, youth and the elderly.

The LDF has already launched a massive public relations exercise highlighting development initiatives undertaken over the past decade and projecting Pinarayi Vijayan as the pivot of Kerala’s socio-economic resurgence.

As in other states, the BJP is highlighting the “double-engine development model” as the central theme of its campaign in Kerala as well.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address a poll rally in the state capital later this week.