Jammu & Kashmir Set for Historic Rajya Sabha Polls on October 24 — National Conference Poised for Majority Wins, BJP Confident of One Seat

Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir is gearing up for its first Rajya Sabha elections since the region’s reorganization into a Union Territory, marking a significant moment in its post-restructuring political landscape. The election for four Rajya Sabha seats will take place on Friday, October 24, after a four-year hiatus, with the National Conference (NC) expected to emerge as the dominant force.

Since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and the subsequent bifurcation of the erstwhile state, Jammu and Kashmir had no functioning legislative assembly, rendering Rajya Sabha elections impossible. The Upper House seats have remained vacant since early 2021, when the terms of former MPs Ghulam Nabi Azad, Nazir Ahmad Laway, Fayaz Ahmad Mir, and Shamsher Singh Manhas expired.

Now, with the restoration of the 90-member Legislative Assembly (currently with 88 active MLAs), political activity has intensified. The NC, led by Farooq Abdullah, has fielded Imran Nabi Dar, Choudhary Mohammad Ramzan, Sajad Kichloo, and Shammi Oberoi as its candidates. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nominated Sat Paul Sharma, Ghulam Mohammad Mir, and Rakesh Mahajan for the four available seats.

Political observers note that the NC-Congress alliance, backed by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and several independents, holds a decisive advantage with a combined strength of 54 MLAs in the House. The BJP, with 28 MLAs, is projected to secure one seat based on its numbers and vote strategy.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has officially extended its support to the NC candidates, solidifying the opposition bloc. In contrast, Sajad Lone’s Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference (JKPC) has announced its decision to abstain from voting, citing disillusionment with both national and regional political players.

Election analysts predict that the NC is likely to capture three of the four seats, given its superior numbers, while the BJP is expected to retain a single seat. Each Rajya Sabha seat requires approximately 45 votes to win outright in a four-seat contest.