As the first step of this tactic, Washington and Taipei will announce ‘joint guarding’ of the second island chain in the South China sea. This will be followed by strategically turning Taiwan’s Coast Guard into a second navy, and docking of US Naval vessels at the Taiping Island and Pratas Island to discourage, suppress, and threaten China’s invasion plan
@Kunal_Chonkar
New Delhi: Talks deciphering the potential role of Taiwan in the Washington-scripted Indo-Pacific strategy have been large and wide in forums, both open and closed, tracing and tracking China’s ever-increasing footprint in the region. The decibels of these talks amplified significantly after Taipei’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs launched its Indo-Pacific Affairs Section – as a component of its New Southbound Policy.
However, soon after the first-ever summit of the leaders of the Quad nations took place in a virtual mode on March 12, Chinese strategic affairs experts sounded warning bells against these ‘talks’ soon turning into real-time ‘tactics.’ Chinese scholars, in attempts to decode the ‘free and open’ aspect in the strategy voiced that Washington realizing the convergence of Taiwan’s engagement in the South Pacific with the US national security policy, is planning to weaponize Taipei and make it part of its ‘Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy.’
The red flags on Taiwan’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific strategy were drawn in the last week of March, by Professor Teng Jianqun, and Defense expert Su Xiaohui of the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), while talking on the reported United States-Taiwan air and missile defense cooperation at a forum in Beijing.
Taiwan – Forward Base in the Strategy
According to the developments, while discussing the air and missile defense cooperation between Washington and Taipei, Teng directed that ‘the United States and Taiwan are developing an integrated air and missile defense system primarily to defend against the mainland’s Dongfeng missiles.’
While presenting Taiwan’s current missile capabilities, Teng claimed that ‘Washington is now trying to pull Taiwan into its Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy also known as the Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative.’ He added with as the first step of this plan, the two nations will announce ‘joint guarding’ of the second island chain in the South China sea.’
While responding to a question on the increased military interactions between the two countries, after a new administration took charge of the external policies of the United States, Teng said that ‘the new administration is continuing to have and use no bottom lines in their defense pact with Taipei.’ He warned that ‘Washington has already started using Taiwan as a forward base to store large amounts of weapons and equipment and to deploy radar systems against the mainland.’
While presenting various locations across Taiwan – identifying them as underground bases and weapons storage facilities, he urged Beijing to increase its vigilance against the Indo-Pacific strategy. He insisted that ‘This strategy is supported by Washington’s efforts to engage in various kinds of multilateral partnerships and alliances as well as engaging in values of diplomacy.’
Turning Taiwan’s Coast Guard Into Second Navy
Meanwhile, Chinese defense expert Su affirmed that the recent MoU signed between Washington and Taipei on Coast Guard Cooperation is a a ploy to turn Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration into a second navy.
‘The aim is to not only dock its (US) vessels at the Taiping Island and Pratas Island but also to have a strategic advantage to provoke and suppress the mainland forces,’ said the Su, who is the Deputy Director, Department of International and Strategic Studies at the CIIS. She claimed that ‘the MoU is only a formal or a public way to announce as to what has been done under the table’ as the Coast Guards of the United States and have already held various exchanges and achieved cooperation on various strategic levels. The Chinese expert asked Beijing’s leadership to carefully observe as to how ‘in the near future the Taiwanese Coast Guard will participate in formal exercises through this MoU.’
While underlining the strategic importance of Taiping Island, she expressed concerns that ‘if Washington is able to dock its vessels on that island, then a fortress will be raised in the South China sea. Thus, China should not underestimate the effect brought by the signing of the MoU between the United States and Taiwan.’
Japan – Deciding Factor
At a time when Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide’s scheduled visit to Washington is around the corner, an interesting question is been whispered – whether a US military ground-based missile be positioned on the Japanese archipelago to counter China’s ruddering?
Senior defense experts and security analysts in Washington claim that the best possible way to discourage China’s invasion of Taiwan in the near future is by directing missiles from Japan and other countries to threaten Beijing. However, it also carries the risk of inviting a strong backlash from President Xi Jinping and increased military tension in the region. Experts claim that it is Japan that has been forced to make heavy choices.
Theory Time
It is necessary to think in the direction of acceptance wherein Tokyo will comply with Washington’s strategic request. While there will be a great deal of opposition from domestic public opinion and pro-China governments, Taiwan’s defense is the most important issue that is directly linked to Japan’s security. Security analysts acknowledge that deploying projectile systems in Japan is inevitable from the perspective of deterring China.
It was the commander of the US Pacific fleet, Admiral John Achillino, who emphasized the need to build a missile network in Asia. His statement came immediately after Admiral Philip Davidson, the 25th commander of US Indo-Pacific Command warned that ‘the invasion of Taiwan could occur within six years.’
The US side’s statement of crisis has now started pushing the Japanese government into a new partnership with the United States. Japanese Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo expressed concern at a recent press conference, stating that ‘the balance is leaning toward China. The gap is widening year by year’ regarding the military power between China and Taiwan. Suga during a recent interview on Fuji TV claimed that ‘he feels it, when asked if he is worried about the trend in China.’ He added that ‘while dealing with the China-Taiwan, it is important for Japan and the United States to work together to create an environment where peaceful resolution can be achieved while maintaining deterrence.’
Repercussions and Repulsions
If China invades Taiwan by force, Japan, which is just a stone’s throw away, will fall into a national crisis. Thus, it is necessary for Tokyo to work with Washington to increase deterrence and warn China that unification of armed forces will lead to ruin. It is this awareness of the situation that is transparent to the deployment acceptors.
However, there is a cautious argument for early deployment within the government. Behind the closed doors, in a military building outside the city of Nagano, there are concerns that may cause objections such as pushing Japan to the forefront of Taiwan’s emergency. Since it is expected that the deployment destination will be the target of Chinese missile attacks in the event of an emergency, it seems that there are almost no local governments that raise their hands.
The discussions in Tokyo also highlight that such a move will have a serious impact on the diplomatic relations with China. When concerns about the Taiwan issue were included in a joint document of the Japan-US Security Council (2+2), Beijing had lashed out on Tokyo saying ‘Japan is subordinate to the US complex. It is not easy to maintain a strong Japan-China economic relations while exerting strong pressure on China.’
Meanwhile, the Japanese government has not disclosed its attitude toward the deployment concept and is watching public opinion and trends in each of the Indo-Pacific countries. Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu in his recent statement at the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee said that ‘they have received an explanation from the United States that we are not in a situation to deploy immediately and have not consulted with any allies for acceptance.’
