By-poll result comes as booster shot for Cong-led UDF in Kerala

X: @the_news_21

Thiruvananthapuram: The emphatic victory it scored over the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the assembly by-election from Nilambur has come as a booster shot for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala, with assembly polls less than a year away.

In a keenly fought election, Congress’s Aryadan Shoukath wrested the seat from the LDF, routing CPI(M)’s high-profile contestant M. Swaraj by a margin of over 10,000 votes. Former LDF independent P.V. Anvar, who forced the by-election by resigning from the seat after falling out with the coalition, finished third, while the BJP’s Mohan George ended up a poor fourth, forfeiting his deposit.

Significantly, Nilambur in Malappuram district falls under the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, represented by Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi. A forest-fringed landscape on the Western Ghats slopes, Nilambur faces several unique challenges — a steady fall in agricultural prices, human-animal conflict that threatens lives and livelihoods, and poor infrastructure. However, with general elections just months away, political narratives dominated the campaign rather than the real issues affecting the electorate.

Once a UDF stronghold, businessman-turned-politician Anvar had won from Nilambur in 2016 and 2021. His personal clout and affluence had played a crucial role in UDF’s earlier defeats. He resigned his assembly membership after revolting against the Pinarayi Vijayan government, which refused to meet demands he made publicly, causing deep embarrassment to the ruling front.

When Anvar broke ranks with the LDF, he expected a smooth entry into the UDF. However, the Congress-led alliance refused to accept the terms dictated by him. He subsequently joined the All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC). After failing to secure the official AITMC symbol, a frustrated Anvar contested as an independent and polled around 19,000 votes.

While the UDF had a clear advantage from the outset, the CPI(M) turned the otherwise low-stakes by-poll into a prestige battle by fielding one of its prominent faces, M. Swaraj. The outcome, however, damaged both the LDF’s image and that of its aspirant, who had run a high-voltage campaign.

Also Read: Back home, Tharoor gets further isolated in Congress

Swaraj, known for his frothy prose and know-it-all disposition, failed to make an impression against the locally rooted Shoukath. The son of Congress veteran Aryadan Mohammed — a long-time representative of Nilambur — Shoukath’s “man-next-door” image resonated with voters.

Shoukath is seen as a politician with a difference — active in social, cultural, and civic life, known for his progressive outlook, and even involved in film production. A major factor in his victory was the overwhelming support from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which has a strong base in the predominantly rural constituency. IUML leadership actively campaigned on his behalf.

As the second-largest partner in the UDF, the IUML is expected to be a major stakeholder in case the alliance forms the next government after the 2026 elections.

The by-poll provided an opportunity for the Congress in Kerala to project unity, setting aside internal factionalism. The result also boosted the standing of Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan within the party. From the beginning, he had declared that he would take it as a personal defeat if the Congress lost Nilambur. Following the victory, he credited the win to collective UDF efforts.

Congress workers believe the result has brightened Satheesan’s chances of becoming the UDF’s chief ministerial candidate, overshadowing other contenders like Ramesh Chennithala.

Political reactions to the outcome have been predictable. The CPI(M) accused the Congress of appeasing communal elements for electoral gains. It also claimed, through statistical juggling, that the LDF’s vote share remained intact. However, such instant rationalisations won’t help the ruling front hide the setback. The CPI(M)’s top forums are expected to undertake a more serious internal review.

The UDF has called the result a clear expression of public discontent with the LDF government, which has been in power for 11 years. However, this by-poll victory is no guarantee that the UDF is poised to sweep the upcoming assembly polls. The LDF remains a formidable coalition capable of regrouping in time. Despite suffering serious setbacks in the last Lok Sabha elections, the LDF — especially its anchor party CPI(M) — still sees itself as a frontrunner in the state assembly race.

Amid the political theatrics, the Nilambur by-election had a comic sub-plot. A group of writers and self-proclaimed cultural icons descended on the campaign scene to canvass for Swaraj. Had they sought votes in their individual capacities, it would have been seen as normal. But they arrived claiming to represent the cultural fabric of Kerala — a claim now being widely mocked, with social media overflowing with satirical memes and hilarious trolls at their expense.