Mumbai: On October 6, we at The News 21 had predicted that it will be difficult for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to live up to its call of “Aab Ki Baar 220 Ke Paar”. Going by the trends so far the BJP seems to be falling way short even from its 2014 tally of 123 seats. Though its electoral ally the Shiv Sena may swallowed some of its self-pride and contested fewer seats, its strike rate has increased considerably giving it that much needed nuisance value and bargaining power with which it can make the BJP dance to its tunes.
It may be recalled that in our region wise assessment of potential 61 seats that the BJP was in danger of losing included – Parli, Muktainagar, Karjat-Jamkhed, Jalgaon-Jamod, Vadgaonsheri and others. As against this the Sena despite being in a vulnerable position in 41 of the 63 seats it had won has done remarkably well to come close to retaining whatever seats it had won in 2014.
While most of the critics had written off the opposition Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the trends suggest that while the Congress seems to be almost retaining the number of seats it won in 2014, it is the NCP that has bucked the trend despite the large scale desertions from its ranks on poll eve.
From the current trends, the BJP is leading in 103 seats, Sena in 60 seats, Congress in 40 seats, NCP in 52 seats, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi in 1 seat and Others in 32 seat’s.
In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP had won 122 seats, the Sena 63, Congress 42, NCP 41, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 1, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) 3, Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWP-I) 2, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) 2, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) 1, Samajwadi Party 1 and Independents 7.
It may be recalled that from our first report on September 26 on Western Maharashtra, we at The News 21 had stated that the Sangli-Kolhapur floods could upset the BJPs calculations has come true. Based on the negative difference in victory margins in Satara Lok Sabha and Assembly seat, we had predicted it would be an uphill task for the BJP retain both the seats. The “Pawar” drenching rally at Satara seems to have turned the tide in favour of the NCP in its strong hold of Western Maharashtra.
In our second report on September 27 on Vidarbha region, here too we The News 21 had predicted that the BJP is in danger of losing half of its seats it had won in 2014. Going by the initial trends, the BJP may not be able to retain all the six seat’s it had won in Nagpur city. The mass scale of import of leaders from other parties did not go down well with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the old guard who had remarked that the loyalist will have no other work to do other than make seating arrangements at rallies and party meetings.
In our third report on Marathwada region on September 29, we had predicted that it will be an uphill task for the BJP, especially for Pankaja Munde to retain her hold on her family turf of Beed district. It seems her estranged cousin brother, NCP leader of opposition in legislative council, Dhananjay Munde is certain to upset all the calculations that his sister had. All the efforts of party president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi seem to have come to a naught here in Marathwada region.
We in our fourth report on North Maharashtra region on October 2 had predicted that it will be difficult for the BJP and its rebellious strongman Eknath Khadse to retain the Muktainagar assembly constituency for his daughter Rohini Khadse. Besides this, the other prominent leaders whose seats were in danger zone included – Pankaj Bhujbal (Nandgaon), Chhagan Bhujbal (Yeola) amongst others.
Fielding Yuva Sena chief Aditya Thackeray from Worli assembly seats seems to have been just the much needed spark that the Sena was searching to reignite its cadres in its traditional Mumbai stronghold. In our fifth of our report on Mumbai, we had stated that if at all the Sena needs Aditya Thackeray, it is now that the Sena needs him has been proved correct. The Sena appears to be retaining the seats it had won in 2014 and likely to add a few more to its kitty. We had predicted that the Congress could well be in danger of losing its Chandivali seat.
In our sixth and last of our report on Thane and Konkan region, we had yet again stated that it would be difficult for the BJP, Sena and NCP to retain their hold on the region. While the Sena appears to have reversed the trend, the BJP and the NCP appear to have been unable to buck that trend. The direct open fight between the BJP and the Sena over the Kankawli seat appears to have not gone down well with the electorate who wanted unity in the alliance. Here the rebellion of Geeta Jain (BJP) in Mira-Bhayander, the roping of former cop Pradeep Sharma (Sena) in Nalasopara, Sena rebel in Versova have spoiled the BJP-Sena chances here too.
