Mumbai: With its sitting MLA from Kankawli, Nitesh Rane tendering his resignation and then immediately walking into the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to file his nomination papers as its candidate, the Congress has almost been wiped out of its electoral presence in the Konkan region outside of Mumbai. But nobody would grumble about it, as much as the BJP, the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) getting worried about losing their support base in the Thane and Konkan region which has sizeable 39 assembly seat’s.
In the 2014 assembly elections, the Sena had won maximum of 14 seats, followed by BJP with 10 seats, NCP 8 seats, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) 3 seats, Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWP-I) 2 seats and Independent’s 1 seat. In 2009 assembly elections, the NCP had won 10 seats, Sena 9 seats, BJP 5, PWP-I 3, Congress 3, BVA 2, Independent’s 2, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 2 and Samajwadi Party (SP) 2 seats.
Going by the comparative analysis of the negative difference in the victory margins of 2009 and 2014, the BJP is in danger of losing 6 of its 10 seats, Sena 9 of its 14 seats, NCP 6 of its 8 seats, Congress its lone seat of Kankawli, BVA 1 of its 2 seats, PWP-I both its 2 seats and Independent’s 1 seat in the October 21 elections.
The NCP which had a wider support base in Thane, Raigad and Ratnagiri district’s, saw its support base getting restricted to only Thane district in the 2014 elections. The Sena has maintained its support base in Thane and Ratnagiri district’s. The BJP which finds its support base shrunk to Thane district, can now expect to make a reappearance in Sindhudurg district piggy-back riding on Nitesh Rane’s back.
Whatever little support base the Congress had in Konkan region, by virtue of Nitesh Rane has all but vanished. As for the other political parties, none have had a pan-Konkan presence. The BVA and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) are restricted to Palghar district. The MNS and SP had their presence in Thane district wiped out in the 2014 polls. While the PWP-I appears to be desperately hanging on to whatever support base they have in Raigad district.
Prominent amongst those who are in the danger of losing their assembly seats include – BJP veteran minister Vishnu Sawara (Vikramgadh – ST), Dr Balaji Kinikar (Sena, Ambernath-SC), Pratap Sarnaik (Sena, Owala-Majiwada), Sandeep Naik (Airoli), Avdhoot A Tatkare (NCP-Sena – Shrivardhan), Bharat Gogawale (Sena, Mahad) and Vaibhav Naik (Sena, Kudal). Of these Sawara senior has withdrawn from poll fray citing health reasons and instead ensured his son Dr Hemant Sawara gets nominated in his place.
One thing is pretty clear, it has been a steady erosion of electoral support base for the BJP in the Konkan region of Thane, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg district’s. Of the 10 seats it won in 2014 elections, the BJP is in danger of losing 6 seats – Dahanu (ST), Vikramgadh (ST), Bhiwandi West, Kalyan West, Belapur and Panvel. Out of the 10 seats, only 4 seats – Murbad, Dombivali, Mira-Bhayander and Thane can be considered as safe seats. One could add the imported Kankawli seat to that tally, to make it 5 safe seats. The BJP will have to sweat it out to retain – Dahanu (ST), Vikramgadh (ST), Bhiwandi West, Kalyan West, Belapur and Panvel seats it won in 2014 polls.
Of the 14 seats that the Sena had won in 2014, the party is likely to lose – Palghar (ST), Bhiwandi Rural (ST), Bhiwandi East, Ambernath (SC), Uran, Mahad, Chiplun, Kudal and Owala-Majiwada seats. The 5 seats that the Sena can consider safe seats include – Kalyan Rural, Kopri-Panchpakhadi, Ratnagiri, Rajapur and Sawantwadi. Out of the 14 seats, the Sena will have to really work had to retain – Bhiwandi Rural (ST), Bhiwandi East, Owala-Majiwada, Mahad and Chiplun seat’s. It would be interesting to see how much impact does the Sena’s opposition to the proposed mega oil refinery project at Nanar in Ratnagiri district have on its own electoral prospects.
Out of the 8 seats the NCP won in 2014 elections, the party is likely to lose 6 of them – Shahapur (ST), Ulhasnagar, Airoli, Karjat, Shriwardhan and Dapoli. It had only 2 safe seats – Mumbra-Kalwa and Guhagar. The NCP will have to toil hard to retain – Shahapur (ST), Ulhasnagar, Airoli, Karjat and Shriwardhan seat’s. Of the 8 seats it won in 2014 its sitting MLAs have quit and joined the Sena-BJP camp – Sandeep Naik (Airoli, BJP), Avdhoot Tatkare (Shriwardhan, Sena) and Bhaskar Jadhav (Guhagar, Sena).
It will be an uphill task for the Congress to retain the Kankawli seat after its sitting MLA Nitesh Rane walked over to the BJP camp. Out of the 3 seats the BVA won, it will find hard to retain its Boisar seat for which it will have to work hard as its sitting MLA has switched over to the Sena camp. At present only its 2 sitting seats – Nalasopara and Vasai appear to be its safe seats. The PWP-I will find it difficult to retain both its – Pen and Alibag seats it had won in 2014 and will have to slog it out to win them. The lone Independent MLA, Ganpat Gaikwad might just be able to retain his Kalyan East seat after joining the BJP camp.
