BJP, Congress & NCP in danger of losing their strongholds in North Maharashtra

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Mumbai: If taking into account the difference between the victory margins of 2009 and 2014, then the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are in serious danger of losing their respective strongholds in North Maharashtra. Prominent amongst those whose seats appear to be in the danger zone include – Eknath Khadse (BJP – Muktainagar), Balasaheb Thorat (Congress – Sangamner), Chhagan Bhujbal (NCP – Yeola), Dadaji Bhuse (Shiv Sena – Malegaon Outer) amongst others.

In the 2014 assembly elections the BJP had swept the North Maharashtra region bagging 19 seats out of the total 47 seats. The Congress won 10 seats, Sena 8, NCP 8, CPI-M 1 and Independent’s 1. As against this in the 2009 polls, it was the NCP that dominated the region winning 13 seats, followed by Sena 10 seats, Congress 9, BJP 6, CPI-M 1 and Independent’s 1 seat. For almost all the political parties Ahmednagar district appears to be the stronghold, barring BJP which also has Jalgaon district as one of its strongholds.

Prominent amongst those whose seats are in the danger zone because of negative difference between the victory margins of 2009 and 2014 polls, include – BJPs Tourism minister Jaykumar Rawal (Sindkheda), former BJP minister and rebel Eknath Khadse (Muktainagar), MPCC president Balasaheb Thorat (Sangamner), Sena minister Dadaji Bhuse (Malegaon Outer), Pankaj Bhujbal (NCP – Nandgaon), Chhagan Bhujbal (NCP – Yeola), Dr Vijaykumar Gavit (BJP – Nandurbar ST) and Jiva Pandu Gavit (CPI-M – Kalwan ST).

Out of the 19 seats that the BJP won in the 2014 polls, it is in danger of losing at least 10 of them. These include – Shahada (ST), Nandurbar (ST), Dhule Urban, Sindkheda, Raver, Muktainagar, Chandwad, Nashik Central, Nashik West and Newasa. There are at least 9 seats which appear to be safe seats for the BJP, which include – Bhusawal (SC), Jalgaon City, Chalisgaon, Jamner, Nashik East, Kopargaon, Shevgaon, Rahuri and Karjat-Jamkhed. Of the 10 seats which are in the danger zone, the BJP will have to sweat it out to retain – Nandurbar (ST), Muktainagar, Chandwad, Nashik Central and Nashik West.

Going by the data comparison of 2009 and 2014 margins, although the Shirdi assembly seat appears to be the safest seat for the Congress, its sitting MLA Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil has recently dumped the party and joined the BJP. Another sitting MLA from Igatpuri (ST), Nirmala Gavit has quit the party and joined the Sena. Out of the 10 seats, the Congress had won in the 2014 polls, it is in danger of losing at least 6 of them that include – Sakri (ST), Shirpur (ST), Malegaon Central, Igatpuri (ST), Sangamner and Shrirampur (SC). Only 3 assembly seats – Akkalkuwa, Dhule Rural and Navapur (ST) appear to be safe seats for the Congress. Out of the 6 seats, the Congress will have to slug it out to retain – Malegaon Central, Igatpuri (ST), Shirdi, Sangamner and Shrirampur (SC) seats.

It is only the Shiv Sena that seems to have stemmed the tide somewhat in North Maharashtra. Considering the fact that the rest of its rivals are in the danger of losing heavily. Of the 8 seats it had won in 2014, the Sena is in danger of losing at least half of them (4), which include – Chopada (ST), Malegaon Outer, Niphad and Parner. At present it does appear that – Jalgaon Rural, Pachora, Sinnar and Deolali (SC) are the safe seats for Sena. Out of the 4 seats that are in the danger zone, the Sena will have to toil hard in retaining Chopada (ST), Malegaon Outer and Parner seat’s.

But it is the NCP that appears to be in for a rude shock. Out of the 8 seats that the NCP won in 2014 polls, the NCP is in danger of losing 6 seat’s – Erandol, Nandgaon, Baglan (ST), Yeola,Ahmednagar City and Shrigonda. The two reserved seat’s of – Dindori (ST) and Akole (ST) technically appear to be its safe seats. Out of the 6 seats that are in the danger zone, the NCP will have to work hard to retain – Erandol, Nandgaon and Yeola. It may be recalled that its former state president and ex-MLA Babanrao Pachpute from Shrigonda has walked over to the BJP camp. Besides, this Vibhav Pichad (Akole – ST), son of its senior leader Madhukar Pichad too recently joined the BJP.

The CPI-M and J P Gavit are in danger of losing control over their only strong hold of Kalwan (ST) assembly seat. While, Shirish Hiralal Chaudhari appears to be the lone Independent who appears to be in the safe zone when it comes to retaining his pocket borough of Amalner constituency in North Maharashtra.

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