Central Hall – The Bihar Cauldron!

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: So the Election Commission of India (ECI) has literally set the Bihar cauldron on fire with its announcement of the state assembly elections. But the ingredients are being added to it by political Chefs in Maharashtra, New Delhi and Bihar. The brew, the stew or the concoction that is being sought to be cooked now will go a long way to define the course the polity in our country takes in Covid-19 times.

The inevitable assembly elections have come at such a testing time that our responses both to the pandemic and towards the way we redefine our politics, will test our political sagacity and maturity. But going by the way we have been responding to the Covid-19 pandemic in the most cavalier manner, suggests we are yet to realise the gravity or the enormity of the challenge confronting us.

The elections will be a test of political skills and governance, not just for Janata Dal (United – JD-U) chief and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, but also for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), its Prime Minister Narendra Modi and its president J P Nadda.

For the JD-U and the BJP the test will be more for their governance, their ability to deal with the Coronavirus pandemic, the impact that Covid-19 has had on the economy and lifestyle. But most importantly the impact will be felt in terms of Agriculture and Labour (Jobs).

Bihar is the second largest state after Uttar Pradesh that accounts for migrant labour population in the country. As per the 2011 Census, a total of 52,60,659 lakh labourers had migrated out of Bihar in search of jobs. The total migrant population from Bihar included 41,00,923 rural population and 8,75,562 lakh urban population. This migrant population accounts for 16 of the 38 districts in Bihar.

Also Read: Central Hall – Farmers Woes!

As per ECI data, 16 lakh migrants have now been registered in electoral rolls as migrant labourers. While conservative estimates suggest that 23.6 lakh migrant labourers had managed to return back to their native places in Bihar after the lockdown was announced in March earlier this year.

But what is significant to note here is that the all India inter-state migration which was 55 percent in 2001 census came down to 33 percent in 2011 census. This is being interpreted as improved growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) especially in states like UP and Bihar which still account for sizable migrant labour population in Maharashtra and New Delhi. That explains why developments in Mumbai and Maharashtra will have a deep and profound impact on the assembly elections in Bihar.

The unemployment dole handed out to these migrant labourers, ration and jobs that were offered to these migrant labourers will determine the fate of the JD-U and BJP led government. Much of the troubles were saved by Bollywood actor Sonu Sood who ensured that the migrant labourers reached their native places safe and sound.

His actions were seen by many through the political lens as his attempts to make a political foray in the Bihar assembly elections. So much so that some even tried to arm twist him in making pay obeisance at their doorsteps and questioning him over why he was helping only migrants from Bihar.

It was all political, it even turned more rabid further with the mysterious death of Sood’s fellow Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput (SSR). The drama that is being played out over the investigation into the case is bound to have its political repercussions in the Bihar assembly elections.

The taking over of the SSR case by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and now being turned into a multi-agency probe involving Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) is bound to put the average Bihari voter into a tizzy not sure what to make out of it, until the probe yields conclusive evidence pretty soon as to what caused SSRs death.

For Nitish Kumar the taking over of the SSR case probe by the CBI must have come as a huge relief. Because the JD-U chief is not just trying to ward-off stiff challenge from Tejasvi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), his one-time ally in government, to his current ally in government, the BJP which is trying to increase its tally.

It is basically a triangular fight between JD-U, BJP and the RJD, with the rest being thrown in just to spice up the political porridge. For the electorate in Bihar it will be a Hobson’s choice to choose between a two year JD-U-RJD government and then later on the current JD-U-BJP government since 2017. More than the BJP, it will be the JD-U which will feel the pressure of the anti-incumbency factor this time around.

If former Mumbai police commissioner Satyapal Singh quit his job and entered the Lok Sabha from Uttar Pradesh for the first time in 2014, It seems that just resigned, former Director General of Police (DGP) Gupteshwar Pandey too seems to be trying to emulate Satyapal Singh in Bihar.

By bringing its old warhorses – Syed Shahnawaz Hussain and Rajiv Pratap Rudy back from their political wilderness as national party spokespersons just ahead of the assembly elections and later on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is another significant factor.

Besides the migrant labour issue the recently passed controversial Farm bills will have any impact on the Bihar elections. The state is also known for its export of litchi, basmati rice, potato and other farm produce. Another issue that is bound to have its impact is the annual flooding in Bihar.

Another factor that will have an impact on the Bihar assembly elections is the handling of the SSR case by the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). It will weigh more heavily on the Congress than on the NCP or the Shiv Sena, the latter had played a spoil sport for the JD-U. This time around it is debatable as to whether the Sena will be able to put up the same kind of electoral performance as it did in 2015. The Bihar assembly election cauldron has been set to fire and it remains to be seen as to what political porridge it eventually cooks on November 10!