Mumbai: There is a possibility that the lockdown imposed due to COVID19 may be extended after 20th April or if removed in certain sectors, it will be removed with some conditions of social distancing. May what happen but the situation in the country will not be normal till May 2020. Let’s try and understand the impact of lockdown on social and financial conditions of the country.
Let us try and analyze the scary situation that we may face post lockdown
1 – Whenever the travel ban is lifted, those who are stuck away from home due to sudden lockdown will want to return home as there will be an uncertainty with regards to lockdown will continue.
2 – Workers and labors in industries and daily wage workers may return to their hometown even if it is for few days citing uncertainty that may arise in future.
3 – The fear of pandemic has penetrated so deep in minds of people that it will take at least 6 to 8 months for people to come out of this fear. People will try and avoid going to crowded places or where there is a possibility of community transfer.
4 – People will avoid going to restaurants, cinema hall, malls bus, train or other public places. A big percentage of restaurants, hotels or shops would be on the verge of closing as they may not have funds to pay high rentals and bear other expenses. Labors or workers in unorganized sectors might have left or may have been asked to leave to cut the cost. Since the customers would want to avoid going at such places it will be either difficult for small businessman to either survive or start again from the scratch as they may not have enough capital to do so.
5 – Daily wage workers will not be having enough of money to pay school fees of their children. Private schools may still survive but some may shut down due to scarcity of funds to run the operation and pay salary to staff.
6 – Business of PR agencies has been badly affected in last 3 years. Advertisement in print media will also be badly affected and it may take at least a year to revive. Many small and medium scale newspapers may choose to shut shops. Only those newspapers that take favors from Government will survive these difficult times.
7 – It will take a while for industries to start their production as the laborers and contract staff to return from hometown because of lockdown. Also arranging raw material, working capital and overhauling of machinery will take some time.
8 – Many medium and small scale industries may not be able to survive this shocker and may shut down.
9 – Due to scarcity of working capital in the market, possibility of defaulting loan and small banks going bankrupt will be very high.
10 – This will be followed by a phase of recession where already stressed real estate sector will collapse and property rates may slash to half of what they are now.
11 – Financial condition of the country will go for a toss and we may reach in pre 1991 state and it will be very difficult to revive from the situation.
Modi ji you were wrong when you said we will go back by 21 years, but, we will go back by 31 years. Had you taken timely action when cases were reported in end of January in Kerala we wouldn’t have had been in this situation. But you were busy with ‘Namaste Trump’, Delhi communal riots and toppling the democratically chosen Government in Madhya Pradesh. Had you paid little attention and those 16 lakh passengers who travelled to India had been screened and monitored we would not have had been in this situation today. How will we deal with already ongoing economic crisis post lockdown is a matter of grave concern.
However there are few positive things in this entire situation
1 – All those who do not wish to use the tools available online would be forced to use these tools.
2 – E Commerce industry will get a great boost. People will open their own small stores and sell their products online.
3 – Logistics would be a great business opportunity. Warehousing, organized logistics and forwarding will get a great boost.
4 – This is challenging time for professionals. They will have to hold on to their clients and will have to use their skill in nation building.
5 – Government should give grant to schools and colleges and promote RTE.
My suggestion to the government in this situation is
1 – Give 100% tax benefit to people for at least 2 years. Small and medium scale industries should be given interest free loan. Sinking business should be given aid from PM Cares fund.
2 – If the situation is under control after lockdown, Government should work on war footing to help people overcome the fear of the pandemic.
3 – Real estate business is already under stress, tax free or low interest housing loans should be given to help real estate sector revive.- By Nirav Thakker
